The size of the religious communities India is made of.1
The arena is measured by projected 2026 shares of each faith (Hindu and Jain against Muslim, Christian and Buddhist), and how many Lok Sabha seats the Hindu base can decide (seats where Muslims are under 20%). State-by-state Census detail behind it.
Principal evidence: Census 2011: Hindu 79.8% + Jain 0.4% vs Muslim 14.2% + Christian 2.3% + Buddhist 0.7%; Sikh 1.7% kept apart. A base, not a loyalty: only part of it votes for Hindutva. Hindu share fell from 84.1% in 1951.
5.2Significance
Sets the ceiling of every mobilisation; decides the arithmetic in the 96 Lok Sabha seats where Muslims are 20%+; drives the demographic-change debate.
5.3Indicators and weights
Table 5.1 lists the 2 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).
Table 5.1. Indicators of arena 1.1
Indicator
Weight
Reading
Projected 2026 faith base (Pew path for Hindus and Muslims; Jain, Christian and Buddhist held at Census 2011)2
0.60
81.6
Seat arithmetic: Lok Sabha seats where Muslims are under 20%
0.40
82.3
Arena reading
1.00
81.9
5.4Reading
The arena reads 81.9, 31.9 points above parity, and is classified as aligned majority (a reading of 60 or above). With a weight of 3 of a total 107.7, it contributes 2.28 points to the composite reading of 45.7.
Figure 5.1. Readings of arena 1.1 by indicator
050100
Projected 2026 faith base (Pew path for Hindus and Muslims; Jain, Christian and Buddhist held at Census 2011)81.6
Seat arithmetic: Lok Sabha seats where Muslims are under 20%82.3
Arena reading81.9
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.
5.5Measures and exhibits
The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).
Measure 1. Projected 2026 faith base (Pew path for Hindus and Muslims; Jain, Christian and Buddhist held at Census 2011)
Reading 81.6%
Hindu 78.38, Jain 0.37 vs Muslim 16.00, Christian 2.3, Buddhist 0.7 (base_series.csv)
Figure 5.2. Over time: Census share (Hindu, Muslim, Christian and 3 more) (% of population)
Census share: HinduCensus share: MuslimCensus share: ChristianCensus share: SikhCensus share: JainCensus share: Buddhist
Data table
Census share: Hindu
Census share: Muslim
Census share: Christian
Census share: Sikh
Census share: Jain
Census share: Buddhist
1951
84.1
9.8
2.3
1.79
0.46
1961
83.5
10.7
2.44
1.79
0.46
0.74
1971
82.7
11.2
2.6
1.89
0.48
0.7
1981
82.3
11.8
2.44
1.92
0.47
0.7
1991
81.5
12.6
2.32
1.94
0.4
0.77
2001
80.5
13.4
2.34
1.87
0.41
0.77
2011
79.8
14.2
2.3
1.72
0.37
0.7
Measure 2. Seat arithmetic: Lok Sabha seats where Muslims are under 20%
Reading 82.3%
Seats under 20% Muslim 447 vs Seats 20%+ Muslim 96
Figure 5.3. Seat arithmetic: Lok Sabha seats where Muslims are under 20%
Reading82.3%447 : 96
Seats under 20% MuslimSeats 20%+ Muslim
Data table
Seats under 20% Muslim
Seats 20%+ Muslim
Seats under 20% Muslim share
Reading
447
96
82.3%
Measure 3. Census 2011 by faith (reference)
Reading 82.3%
Figure 5.4. India by faith, % of people (Census 2011)
Figure 5.6. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (people)
Hindutva-aligned 97,07,09,106 people · 80.2%Opposed 20,85,07,718 people · 17.2%Transactional 0 people · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 3,16,38,153 people · 2.6%
Data table
people
Share
Hindutva-aligned
97,07,09,106
80.2%
Opposed
20,85,07,718
17.2%
Transactional
0
0.0%
Neutral / not counted
3,16,38,153
2.6%
Figure 5.7. The 15 biggest of 280 (people)
Uttar Pradesh | Hindu15,93,12,654
Maharashtra | Hindu8,97,03,057
Bihar | Hindu8,60,78,686
Andhra Pradesh (undivided) | Hindu7,48,24,149
Madhya Pradesh | Hindu6,60,07,121
West Bengal | Hindu6,43,85,546
Tamil Nadu | Hindu6,31,88,168
Rajasthan | Hindu6,06,57,103
Gujarat | Hindu5,35,33,988
Karnataka | Hindu5,13,17,472
Odisha | Hindu3,93,00,341
Uttar Pradesh | Muslim3,84,83,967
West Bengal | Muslim2,46,54,825
Chhattisgarh | Hindu2,38,19,789
Jharkhand | Hindu2,23,76,051
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
people
Side
Uttar Pradesh | Hindu
15,93,12,654
Hindutva-aligned
Maharashtra | Hindu
8,97,03,057
Hindutva-aligned
Bihar | Hindu
8,60,78,686
Hindutva-aligned
Andhra Pradesh (undivided) | Hindu
7,48,24,149
Hindutva-aligned
Madhya Pradesh | Hindu
6,60,07,121
Hindutva-aligned
West Bengal | Hindu
6,43,85,546
Hindutva-aligned
Tamil Nadu | Hindu
6,31,88,168
Hindutva-aligned
Rajasthan | Hindu
6,06,57,103
Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat | Hindu
5,35,33,988
Hindutva-aligned
Karnataka | Hindu
5,13,17,472
Hindutva-aligned
Odisha | Hindu
3,93,00,341
Hindutva-aligned
Uttar Pradesh | Muslim
3,84,83,967
Opposed
West Bengal | Muslim
2,46,54,825
Opposed
Chhattisgarh | Hindu
2,38,19,789
Hindutva-aligned
Jharkhand | Hindu
2,23,76,051
Hindutva-aligned
Figure 5.8. Over time: Census population (Hindu, Muslim, Christian and 3 more) (million)
The arena rests on 280 coded units and 96 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 70 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 105 opposed and 105 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 280 grade A.
The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).