Part III · Society and Organisation

Chapter 12

Street Mobilisation and Veto Power

Arena 2.5 · weight 3 · reading 41.5 · opposed majority

12.1Scope

The power to mobilise crowds and make the State, or a company, studio, platform or venue, back down.¹

The arena is measured by 144 mass mobilisations 1985-2026 by every camp, scored 0-3 for how far the State, or a company, studio, platform, venue or publisher, backed down (withdrawn, delayed, renamed, cut, conceded); mass-contact drives such as the Ram Nidhi Samarpan and Bharat Jodo Yatra count toward capacity. The recent window 2019-26 carries most weight.

12.2Significance

Laws repealed or stalled (farm laws, CAA rules delayed 51 months, Shah Bano), ministers resigning (NEET 2026), bans and suspensions conceded (Satanic Verses, Nupur Sharma), films renamed or cut and ads and shows withdrawn (Padmaavat, Laxmii, Annapoorani on Netflix, Tanishq), and governments’ and companies’ fear of the street.

12.3Indicators and weights

Table 12.1 lists the 3 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).

Table 12.1. Indicators of arena 2.5

Indicator	Weight	Reading
Veto points won 2019-26: the State, companies, studios, platforms and venues made to back down²	0.60	41.9
Veto points won 1985-2026 (State and institution back-downs, 139 counted episodes)	0.20	36.8
Mobilisation capacity: top three episodes 2019-26 by states covered and duration, mass-contact drives included³	0.20	44.8
Arena reading	1.00	41.5

12.4Reading

The arena reads 41.5, 8.5 points below parity, and is classified as opposed majority (a reading below 45). With a weight of 3 of a total 107.7, it contributes 1.15 points to the composite reading of 45.7.

Figure 12.1. Readings of arena 2.5 by indicator

050100

Veto points won 2019-26: the State, companies, studios, platforms and venues made to back down41.9

Veto points won 1985-2026 (State and institution back-downs, 139 counted episodes)36.8

Mobilisation capacity: top three episodes 2019-26 by states covered and duration, mass-contact drives included44.8

Arena reading41.5

Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.

12.5Measures and exhibits

The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).

Measure 1. Veto points won 2019-26: the State, companies, studios, platforms and venues made to back down

Reading 41.9%

Hindutva-side mobilisations 44 vs Opposed-side mobilisations 61

Figure 12.2. Veto points won 2019-26: the State, companies, studios, platforms and venues made to back down

Reading41.9%44 : 61

Hindutva-side mobilisationsOpposed-side mobilisations

Data table

	Hindutva-side mobilisations	Opposed-side mobilisations	Hindutva-side mobilisations share
Reading	44	61	41.9%

Measure 2. Veto points won 1985-2026 (State and institution back-downs, 139 counted episodes)

Reading 36.8%

Figure 12.3. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (veto score 0-3)

Hindutva-aligned 75 veto score 0-3 · 35.4%Opposed 129 veto score 0-3 · 60.8%Transactional 0 veto score 0-3 · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 8 veto score 0-3 · 3.8%

Data table

	veto score 0-3	Share
Hindutva-aligned	75	35.4%
Opposed	129	60.8%
Transactional	0	0.0%
Neutral / not counted	8	3.8%

Figure 12.4. The 15 biggest of 97 (veto score 0-3)

Shah Bano maintenance judgment (SC 23 Apr 1985) (Apr 1985 - May 1986)3

Import ban on The Satanic Verses (Oct 1988 - Feb 1989)3

Shooting of Deepa Mehta's Water in Varanasi (Jan-Feb 2000)3

Land acquisition for Tata Nano plant, Singur (2006-Oct 2008)3

SEZ land acquisition, Nandigram (Jan-Nov 2007)3

Sethusamudram canal through Ram Setu; ASI affidavit (Sep 2007 - 2008)3

Transfer of 40 ha forest land to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (Jun-Jul 2008)3

Restoration of land use for the Amarnath yatra (Jul - 31 Aug 2008)3

Separate Telangana state (Nov 2009 - Feb 2014)3

Rape law reform after the Delhi gang rape (Dec 2012 - Jan 2013)3

Land Acquisition (Amendment) Ordinance (Jan-Aug 2015)3

Maratha quota (Aug 2016 - Nov 2018)3

Ban on jallikattu (8-23 Jan 2017)3

Sterlite copper smelter, Thoothukudi (Feb-May 2018)3

SC judgment diluting the SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act (2 Apr 2018)3

Hindutva-alignedOpposedNeutral / not counted

Data table

	veto score 0-3	Side
Shah Bano maintenance judgment (SC 23 Apr 1985) (Apr 1985 - May 1986)	3	Opposed
Import ban on The Satanic Verses (Oct 1988 - Feb 1989)	3	Opposed
Shooting of Deepa Mehta's Water in Varanasi (Jan-Feb 2000)	3	Hindutva-aligned
Land acquisition for Tata Nano plant, Singur (2006-Oct 2008)	3	Opposed
SEZ land acquisition, Nandigram (Jan-Nov 2007)	3	Opposed
Sethusamudram canal through Ram Setu; ASI affidavit (Sep 2007 - 2008)	3	Hindutva-aligned
Transfer of 40 ha forest land to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (Jun-Jul 2008)	3	Opposed
Restoration of land use for the Amarnath yatra (Jul - 31 Aug 2008)	3	Hindutva-aligned
Separate Telangana state (Nov 2009 - Feb 2014)	3	Opposed
Rape law reform after the Delhi gang rape (Dec 2012 - Jan 2013)	3	Neutral / not counted
Land Acquisition (Amendment) Ordinance (Jan-Aug 2015)	3	Opposed
Maratha quota (Aug 2016 - Nov 2018)	3	Opposed
Ban on jallikattu (8-23 Jan 2017)	3	Neutral / not counted
Sterlite copper smelter, Thoothukudi (Feb-May 2018)	3	Opposed
SC judgment diluting the SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act (2 Apr 2018)	3	Opposed

Figure 12.5. Over time: Veto points, side H, Veto points, side R, Veto points, side N · veto points 1985-1999

Veto points, side HVeto points, side RVeto points, side N

Data table

	Veto points, side H	Veto points, side R	Veto points, side N
1985	6	12	0

Figure 12.6. Over time: Episodes, side H, Episodes ending in State concession, side H, Episodes with any State response, side H and 3 more · episodes 1985-1999

Episodes, side HEpisodes ending in State concession (veto>=2), side HEpisodes with any State response (veto>=1), side HEpisodes, side REpisodes ending in State concession (veto>=2), side REpisodes with any State response (veto>=1), side R

Data table

	Episodes, side H	Episodes ending in State concession (veto>=2), side H	Episodes with any State response (veto>=1), side H	Episodes, side R	Episodes ending in State concession (veto>=2), side R	Episodes with any State response (veto>=1), side R
1985	4	3	3	5	5	5

Figure 12.7. Over time: H share of H+R veto points, Concession rate, all sides · %

H share of H+R veto pointsConcession rate, all sides (veto>=2 / episodes)

Data table

	H share of H+R veto points	Concession rate, all sides (veto>=2 / episodes)
1985	33.3	88.9
2000	26.8	65.4
2014	13.9	52
2020	25	35.3

Figure 12.8. Over time: Veto points, side H, Veto points, side R, Veto points, side N · veto points 2000-2013

Veto points, side HVeto points, side RVeto points, side N

Data table

	Veto points, side H	Veto points, side R	Veto points, side N
2000	11	30	3

Figure 12.9. Over time: Episodes, side H, Episodes ending in State concession, side H, Episodes with any State response, side H and 3 more · episodes 2000-2013

Data table

	Episodes, side H	Episodes ending in State concession (veto>=2), side H	Episodes with any State response (veto>=1), side H	Episodes, side R	Episodes ending in State concession (veto>=2), side R	Episodes with any State response (veto>=1), side R
2000	8	4	4	17	12	14

Figure 12.10. Over time: Veto points, side H, Veto points, side R, Veto points, side N · veto points 2014-2019

Veto points, side HVeto points, side RVeto points, side N

Data table

	Veto points, side H	Veto points, side R	Veto points, side N
2014	5	31	3

Figure 12.11. Over time: Episodes, side H, Episodes ending in State concession, side H, Episodes with any State response, side H and 3 more · episodes 2014-2019

Data table

	Episodes, side H	Episodes ending in State concession (veto>=2), side H	Episodes with any State response (veto>=1), side H	Episodes, side R	Episodes ending in State concession (veto>=2), side R	Episodes with any State response (veto>=1), side R
2014	5	2	2	19	10	14

Figure 12.12. Over time: Veto points, side H, Veto points, side R, Veto points, side N · veto points 2020-2026

Veto points, side HVeto points, side RVeto points, side N

Data table

	Veto points, side H	Veto points, side R	Veto points, side N
2020	9	27	2

Figure 12.13. Over time: Episodes, side H, Episodes ending in State concession, side H, Episodes with any State response, side H and 3 more · episodes 2020-2026

Data table

	Episodes, side H	Episodes ending in State concession (veto>=2), side H	Episodes with any State response (veto>=1), side H	Episodes, side R	Episodes ending in State concession (veto>=2), side R	Episodes with any State response (veto>=1), side R
2020	9	3	5	24	8	17

Table 12.2. Violence21 rows

episode_id	event	year	state	deaths_official	finding_body	finding	case_status	status_date
babri_demolition_1992	Demolition of Babri Masjid and Bombay riots	1992-93	UP; Maharashtra	Bombay ~900 dead, >2,000 injured (Srikrishna Commission)	Liberhan Commission (report tabled Nov 2009); Srikrishna Commission (report Feb 1998)	Liberhan held 68 persons culpable; Srikrishna examined police conduct and named organisations in the Jan 1993 phase	Demolition: CBI special court acquitted all 32 accused 30 Sep 2020; Allahabad HC dismissed appeal Nov 2022. Bombay	2022-11
ram_shila_shilanyas_1989	Bhagalpur violence during Ram shila procession	1989	Bihar	>1,000 (HT)	Sinha-Hasan Commission (1995); N.N. Singh Commission (tabled 2015)	Commission reports on administrative failure	closed (HC acquittal of a convict 2017)	2017-06-29
gujarat_bandh_2002	Gujarat violence after Godhra	2002	Gujarat	1,044 (official); Godhra fire 59	Nanavati-Mehta Commission (final report Dec 2019); SC-appointed SIT (9 cases); SC Zakia Jafri judgment 24 Jun 2022	SC upheld SIT closure on larger conspiracy (2022)	Gulberg 24 convicted (2016), Naroda Gam all acquitted (Apr 2023); appeals pending	2023-04-21
kandhamal_2008	Kandhamal violence	2008	Odisha	39 (state affidavit)	SC (Archbishop Raphael Cheenath v State of Orissa) 2 Aug 2016	827 FIRs; 78 cases ended in conviction (493 persons); 284 acquitted	SC directions on compensation and reinvestigation	2016-08-02
muzaffarnagar_2013	Muzaffarnagar riots	2013	UP	>60; >40000 displaced	Justice Vishnu Sahai Commission (2015); UP SIT	findings NO DATA (only headlines fetched)	over 1,100 acquitted, 7 convicted (2021); UP sought to withdraw 77 cases	2021-09-07
jat_haryana_2016	Jat quota agitation	2016	Haryana	30 (Haryana govt: 9 had no role in violence)	Prakash Singh Committee (May 2016)	police and civil administration failures	NO DATA	2016-05
sterlite_2018	Thoothukudi police firing	2018	Tamil Nadu	13	Justice Aruna Jagadeesan Commission (2022)	indicted police officers	departmental action contested; prosecutions NO DATA	2022
caa_nrc_2019_20	Anti-CAA protest deaths (UP)	2019	UP	22 (UP govt to Allahabad HC)	Allahabad HC proceedings; NHRC spot inquiry	deaths largely in police firing (reported); 274 damage-recovery notices withdrawn after SC (Feb 2022)	no judicial inquiry ordered	2022-02
caa_nrc_2019_20	Anti-CAA protest deaths (Assam)	2019	Assam	5 (Assam govt)	Assam CM in Assembly	1,026 arrested in 12 days (11 under UAPA); 88 police, 20 civilians injured	NO DATA	2022
caa_nrc_2019_20	Mangaluru police firing	2019	Karnataka	2	Magisterial inquiry	no fault found with police firing (state to HC Oct 2021)	closed	2021-10
delhi_riots_2020	North-east Delhi riots (Feb 2020)	2020	Delhi	53 (Delhi Police)	Delhi Police SITs; Delhi courts	757 FIRs; 2,647 arrested or detained (HM in Lok Sabha, Mar 2020); >80% of decided cases ended in acquittal or discharge	Larger-conspiracy FIR 59/2020 (UAPA): charges not framed; SC 5 Jan 2026 denied bail to 2, granted 5. Magistrate order	2026-01-05
bengaluru_djhalli_2020	DJ Halli / KG Halli riots	2020	Karnataka	3 (police firing)	NIA (UAPA); state police	chargesheets filed	HC bail to UAPA accused after 5 years (Jul 2026)	2026-07-08
farm_laws_2020_21	Lakhimpur Kheri	2021	UP	8	SIT; SC-monitored	SIT called it a pre-planned conspiracy (Dec 2021)	trial ongoing; main accused on SC bail	2026
nupur_sharma_2022	Prophet-remarks protests and follow-on killings	2022	UP; WB; Jharkhand; Rajasthan; Maharashtra	2 (Ranchi police firing); Kanhaiya Lal and Umesh Kolhe murders	NIA chargesheets (Dec 2022)	400+ arrests after 10 Jun 2022; Kanhaiya Lal: charges framed vs 9 (Feb 2024); Umesh Kolhe: charges not framed	trials pending	2026
ram_navami_2023	Ram Navami clashes (Howrah; Rishra)	2023	West Bengal	NO DATA	NIA (on Calcutta HC order)	NIA investigation	NIA arrested a TMC councillor (Rishra) Jun-Jul 2026	2026-07-01
nuh_2023	Nuh / Gurugram clashes	2023	Haryana	6	P&H HC (suo motu on demolitions)	HC halted demolitions	116 arrested, 44 FIRs by 2 Aug 2023	2023-08-07
manipur_kukizo_2023_25	Manipur ethnic violence	2023	Manipur	306 killed, 49 missing (state govt, Aug 2026)	MHA commission of inquiry (2023); CBI	commission pending (5th extension May 2026)	CBI cases pending	2026-05-16
sambhal_2024	Sambhal violence during survey	2024	UP	4	Justice D.K. Arora Judicial Commission (tabled UP Assembly 5 Aug 2026)	pre-planned conspiracy; 4 deaths not from police bullets; named Masjid committee office-bearers and an SP MP (who	cases pending; commission findings are not a verdict	2026-08-05
waqf_2025	Murshidabad violence during Waqf Act protests	2025	West Bengal	3	Calcutta HC fact-finding committee (27 Apr 2025); SIT	committee report to HC	13 given life terms for the father-son lynching (Dec 2025)	2025-12-23
ladakh_2024_25	Leh police firing	2025	Ladakh	4	Judicial inquiry	findings not public	NSA detention of Sonam Wangchuk (Sep 2025) later ended	2026-09
neet_cjp_2026	Jantar Mantar march (20 Jul 2026)	2026	Delhi	0	Delhi Police statement; Delhi HC hearing	118 police hurt (police); ~150 protesters hospitalised (organisers)	FIRs; withdrawal promised in NDA-ruled states	2026-07

Measure 3. Mobilisation capacity: top three episodes 2019-26 by states covered and duration, mass-contact drives included

Reading 44.8%

H: Ram Nidhi Samarpan 2021, akshat sampark 2024, Shaurya Jagran Yatra 2023; R: farm protests, Bharat Jodo Yatra, CAA-NRC (street_units.csv, rescore_r9.py)

12.6Evidence base

The arena rests on 144 coded units and 60 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 55 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 86 opposed and 3 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 5 grade A, 132 grade C, 7 grade D.

The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).

Notes

Episodes from court records, commissions and news (street_units.csv). ↩
Rev 9.4: institution back-downs added for both camps (S10 ADDITIONS_R9.md). Against the State alone: 9 vs 44 (17.0). ↩
H: Ram Nidhi Samarpan 2021, akshat sampark 2024, Shaurya Jagran Yatra 2023; R: farm protests, Bharat Jodo Yatra, CAA-NRC (street_units.csv, rescore_r9.py). ↩