Part III · Society and Organisation

Chapter 9

Public Opinion on Contested Questions

Arena 2.2 · weight 3 · reading 50.7 · contested

9.1Scope

What people believe on the core questions.¹

The arena is measured by 16 representative survey items on policy (UCC, CAA, Art. 370, conversion laws, security …) and identity (Hindu India, majority will …), weighted by sample and recency, plus salience.

9.2Significance

What a party can say and do without losing votes; public acceptance of laws; a slow-moving layer of power.

9.3Indicators and weights

Table 9.1 lists the 3 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).

Table 9.1. Indicators of arena 2.2

Indicator	Weight	Reading
Policy positions (9 all-adult items, sample- and recency-weighted)²	0.40	59.8
Identity positions (7 items)³	0.40	39.3
Intensity and salience⁴	0.20	55.5
Arena reading	1.00	50.7

9.4Reading

The arena reads 50.7, 0.7 points above parity, and is classified as contested (a reading from 45 to below 60). With a weight of 3 of a total 107.7, it contributes 1.41 points to the composite reading of 45.7.

The indicators diverge: the highest reading is for policy positions (9 all-adult items, sample- and recency-weighted) (59.8), the lowest for identity positions (7 items) (39.3).

Figure 9.1. Readings of arena 2.2 by indicator

050100

Policy positions (9 all-adult items, sample- and recency-weighted)59.8

Identity positions (7 items)39.3

Intensity and salience55.5

Arena reading50.7

Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.

9.5Measures and exhibits

The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).

Measure 1. Policy positions (9 all-adult items, sample- and recency-weighted)

Reading 59.8%

UCC, CAA, NRC, Art. 370, love-jihad laws, Op Sindoor, caste census, same-sex marriage, hijab; n recorded for all 9 items; UCC, NRC and love-jihad are support-only (no oppose figure published) (beliefs_units.csv)

Figure 9.2. Each counted row (% Hindutva share of decided)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.

Uniform Civil Code | India Today-CVoter MOTN | Aug 202675

Operation Sindoor / strong security | India Today-CVoter MOTN | Aug 202572.4

Hijab ban in schools | India Today-CVoter MOTN | Jan 202368.7

CAA | India Today-Karvy MOTN | Jan 202061.2

Article 370 abrogation | Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll | Apr 202458.6

Anti-conversion / "love jihad" laws | India Today-Karvy MOTN | Jan 202158

NRC | India Today-Karvy MOTN | Jan 202049

Same-sex marriage | Pew Global Attitudes (Spring 2023) | Feb-May 202344.8

Caste census | DALES Indian Election Study 2024 | Apr-Jun 202423.5

0100%

Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Data table

	% Hindutva share of decided	Side
Uniform Civil Code \| India Today-CVoter MOTN \| Aug 2026	75	Hindutva-aligned
Operation Sindoor / strong security \| India Today-CVoter MOTN \| Aug 2025	72.4	Hindutva-aligned
Hijab ban in schools \| India Today-CVoter MOTN \| Jan 2023	68.7	Hindutva-aligned
CAA \| India Today-Karvy MOTN \| Jan 2020	61.2	Hindutva-aligned
Article 370 abrogation \| Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll \| Apr 2024	58.6	Hindutva-aligned
Anti-conversion / "love jihad" laws \| India Today-Karvy MOTN \| Jan 2021	58	Hindutva-aligned
NRC \| India Today-Karvy MOTN \| Jan 2020	49	Opposed
Same-sex marriage \| Pew Global Attitudes (Spring 2023) \| Feb-May 2023	44.8	Opposed
Caste census \| DALES Indian Election Study 2024 \| Apr-Jun 2024	23.5	Opposed

Figure 9.3. Over time: UCC support, CAA support · % support

UCC support (India Today MOTN)CAA support

Data table

	UCC support (India Today MOTN)	CAA support
2019		62.1
2021	70
2023	69
2025	65.1
2026	73.9

Figure 9.4. Over time: CAA support · % "helps persecuted minorities"

Data table

	CAA support
2020	41

Figure 9.5. Over time: CAA support · % approve

Data table

	CAA support
2021	53

Figure 9.6. Over time: NRC support · % implement nationwide

Data table

	NRC support
2019	65.4

Figure 9.7. Over time: NRC support · % "good step"

Data table

	NRC support
2020	49

Figure 9.8. Over time: Art 370 (should be revoked/repealed) · % should be revoked

Data table

	Art 370: should be revoked/repealed
2019	57

Figure 9.9. Over time: Art 370 (should be revoked/repealed) · % should have been repealed

Data table

	Art 370: should be revoked/repealed
2024	34

Figure 9.10. Over time: Art 370 (want it reinstated) · % want Art 370 reinstated

Data table

	Art 370: want it reinstated
2023	31.2

Figure 9.11. Over time: Caste census support · % in favour

Data table

	Caste census support (MOTN; Hindutva coded oppose)
2024	59
2025	69

Figure 9.12. Over time: Same-sex marriage support/acceptance · % accepted

Data table

	Same-sex marriage support/acceptance
2019	24

Figure 9.13. Over time: Same-sex marriage support/acceptance · % favour legal SSM

Data table

	Same-sex marriage support/acceptance
2023	53

Figure 9.14. Over time: Homosexuality never justifiable · % never justifiable

Data table

	Homosexuality never justifiable (WVS)
1990	88.5
1995	69
2001	49.5
2006	47.8
2012	73.1
2023	48.1

Figure 9.15. Over time: Op Sindoor a strong response · % strong

Data table

	Op Sindoor a strong response (MOTN)
2025	55

Measure 2. Identity positions (7 items)

Reading 39.3%

Hindu-only India 12.2, being Hindu key 57, majority will 56.2 … (beliefs_units.csv)

Figure 9.16. Each counted row (% Hindutva share of decided)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.

Minorities should adopt majority customs | Lokniti-CSDS NES post-poll | Jun 202458.2

Being Hindu important to be truly Indian | Pew Religion in India | 2019-2057

Will of majority community should prevail | Lokniti-CSDS NES post-poll | Jun 202456.2

Special treatment for minorities | Lokniti-CSDS NES post-poll | Jun 202435.1

Religious diversity benefits India | Pew Religion in India | 2019-2031.2

Govt must protect minorities even if majority dislikes | Lokniti-CSDS NES post-poll | Jun 202422.3

India belongs only to Hindus | Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll | Apr 202412.2

0100%

Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Data table

	% Hindutva share of decided	Side
Minorities should adopt majority customs \| Lokniti-CSDS NES post-poll \| Jun 2024	58.2	Hindutva-aligned
Being Hindu important to be truly Indian \| Pew Religion in India \| 2019-20	57	Hindutva-aligned
Will of majority community should prevail \| Lokniti-CSDS NES post-poll \| Jun 2024	56.2	Hindutva-aligned
Special treatment for minorities \| Lokniti-CSDS NES post-poll \| Jun 2024	35.1	Opposed
Religious diversity benefits India \| Pew Religion in India \| 2019-20	31.2	Opposed
Govt must protect minorities even if majority dislikes \| Lokniti-CSDS NES post-poll \| Jun 2024	22.3	Opposed
India belongs only to Hindus \| Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll \| Apr 2024	12.2	Opposed

Figure 9.17. Over time: India belongs only to Hindus · % only Hindus

Data table

	India belongs only to Hindus (Lokniti)
2019	15
2024	11

Figure 9.18. Over time: Minorities should adopt majority customs, Govt must protect minorities even if majority d… · % fully agree

Minorities should adopt majority customs (fully agree)Govt must protect minorities even if majority dislikes (fully agree)

Data table

	Minorities should adopt majority customs (fully agree)	Govt must protect minorities even if majority dislikes (fully agree)
2019	13	37
2024	19.9	34

Figure 9.19. Over time: Minorities should adopt majority customs · % fully disagree

Data table

	Minorities should adopt majority customs (fully disagree)
2019	27
2024	18

Figure 9.20. Over time: Vote BJP for Hindutva-aligned · % main reason

Data table

	Vote BJP for Hindutva-aligned (MOTN, salience)
2023	14.3

Measure 3. Intensity and salience

Reading 55.5%

Salience items, not support (beliefs_units.csv)

Figure 9.21. Over time: Communal harmony improved under NDA · % improved

Data table

	Communal harmony improved under NDA (MOTN)
2023	41.4
2026	39.6

Figure 9.22. Over time: Communal harmony deteriorated under NDA · % deteriorated

Data table

	Communal harmony deteriorated under NDA (MOTN)
2023	34.1
2024	28.1
2026	29.5

Measure 4. Context: shown for reference, not part of the reading

Figure 9.23. Over time: Will of majority community should prevail, Special treatment for minorities needed · % fully agree

Will of majority community should prevail (fully agree)Special treatment for minorities needed (fully agree)

Data table

	Will of majority community should prevail (fully agree)	Special treatment for minorities needed (fully agree)
2019	23	27
2024	18.8	23.9

Figure 9.24. Over time: Strong leader who need not bother about electio… · % agree

Data table

	Strong leader who need not bother about elections (agree, NES)
2009	40
2019	61
2024	67.2

Figure 9.25. Over time: Strong leader without parliament/elections good · % very/fairly good

Data table

	Strong leader without parliament/elections good (WVS)
1995	44.1
2001	42.9
2006	45.6
2012	56.4
2023	62.9

Figure 9.26. Over time: Ram temple named biggest govt achievement, Ram Mandir most-liked central govt work · % single pick

Ram temple named biggest govt achievement (MOTN, salience)Ram Mandir most-liked central govt work (NES, salience)

Data table

	Ram temple named biggest govt achievement (MOTN, salience)	Ram Mandir most-liked central govt work (NES, salience)
2021	29
2022	15.7
2024	17	22.4
2025	15.2
2026	11

Figure 9.27. Over time: Satisfied with govt response to Pahalgam · % completely satisfied

Data table

	Satisfied with govt response to Pahalgam (CVoter, completely)
2025	68.1

Figure 9.28. Over time: Would not like other-religion neighbours · % mentioned

Data table

	Would not like other-religion neighbours (WVS)
2001	40.4
2006	44
2012	28.4
2023	27.6

Figure 9.29. Over time: Religion very important in life · % very important

Data table

	Religion very important in life (WVS)
1990	49.2
1995	48.2
2001	55.8
2006	49.7
2012	67.1
2023	64.2

9.6Evidence base

The arena rests on 55 coded units and 72 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 37 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 18 opposed and 0 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 39 grade B, 14 grade C, 1 grade D, 1 grade E.

The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).

Notes

CVoter MOTN; Lokniti; Pew 2021. ↩
UCC, CAA, NRC, Art. 370, love-jihad laws, Op Sindoor, caste census, same-sex marriage, hijab; n recorded for all 9 items; UCC, NRC and love-jihad are support-only (no oppose figure published) (beliefs_units.csv). ↩
Hindu-only India 12.2, being Hindu key 57, majority will 56.2 … (beliefs_units.csv). ↩
Salience items, not support (beliefs_units.csv). ↩