Part VII · Elections
Chapter 25
Vote Share 25.1 Scope 25.2 Significance 25.3 Indicators and weights 25.4 Reading 25.5 Measures and exhibits 25.6 Evidence base Arena 6.1 · weight 4 · reading 43.2 · opposed majority
25.1 ScopeThe national and state mandate.1
The arena is measured by the NDA’s share of all votes in Lok Sabha 2024 and in the latest assembly election of every state, and bypoll wins since 2024.
25.2 SignificanceLegitimacy; who can form governments.
25.3 Indicators and weightsTable 25.1 lists the 3 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).
Table 25.1. Indicators of arena 6.1
Indicator Weight Reading Lok Sabha 2024: NDA share of all votes 0.40 43.8 Latest assembly election in all 31 legislatures (population-weighted NDA share) 0.45 41.7 Bypolls 2024-26 (seats won) 0.15 45.4 Arena reading 1.00 43.2
25.4 ReadingThe arena reads 43.2 , 6.8 points below parity, and is classified as opposed majority (a reading below 45). With a weight of 4 of a total 107.7, it contributes 1.60 points to the composite reading of 45.7.
Figure 25.1. Readings of arena 6.1 by indicator0 50 100
Lok Sabha 2024: NDA share of all votes 43.8
Latest assembly election in all 31 legislatures (population-weighted NDA share) 41.7
Bypolls 2024-26 (seats won) 45.4
Arena reading 43.2
Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.
25.5 Measures and exhibitsThe exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).
Measure 1. Lok Sabha 2024: NDA share of all votes
Reading 43.8%
NDA 43.8% of all votes; every non-NDA vote counts against.
Figure 25.2. NDA Lok Sabha seats under a uniform swing (points to NDA)Each point re-runs all 543 seats; state swings set in Reshape Power are kept. 0 200 400 -7.5 -5 -2.5 0 2.5 5 7.5 majority 272 NDA seats -8: 127 NDA seats -7.5: 134 NDA seats -7: 146 NDA seats -6.5: 155 NDA seats -6: 165 NDA seats -5.5: 172 NDA seats -5: 183 NDA seats -4.5: 190 NDA seats -4: 202 NDA seats -3.5: 215 NDA seats -3: 224 NDA seats -2.5: 234 NDA seats -2: 251 NDA seats -1.5: 263 NDA seats -1: 276 NDA seats -0.5: 282 NDA seats 0: 293 NDA seats 0.5: 300 NDA seats 1: 316 NDA seats 1.5: 328 NDA seats 2: 340 NDA seats 2.5: 349 NDA seats 3: 364 NDA seats 3.5: 377 NDA seats 4: 384 NDA seats 4.5: 392 NDA seats 5: 403 NDA seats 5.5: 414 NDA seats 6: 426 NDA seats 6.5: 430 NDA seats 7: 437 NDA seats 7.5: 443 NDA seats 8: 451 451 Data table NDA seats -8 127 -7.5 134 -7 146 -6.5 155 -6 165 -5.5 172 -5 183 -4.5 190 -4 202 -3.5 215 -3 224 -2.5 234 -2 251 -1.5 263 -1 276 -0.5 282 0 293 0.5 300 1 316 1.5 328 2 340 2.5 349 3 364 3.5 377 4 384 4.5 392 5 403 5.5 414 6 426 6.5 430 First 30 of 33 rows; all rows are in the data file (Appendix D).
Figure 25.3. Each counted row (vote %)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading. Lok Sabha 2024 - NDA vote 43.8
Lok Sabha 2024 - INDIA vote 41.5
Lok Sabha 2024 - Others vote 14.7
0 100%
Data table vote % Side Lok Sabha 2024 - NDA vote 43.8 Hindutva-aligned Lok Sabha 2024 - INDIA vote 41.5 Opposed Lok Sabha 2024 - Others vote 14.7 Opposed
Figure 25.4. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (seats)
293 seats · 54.0%250 seats · 46.0%0 seats · 0.0%0 seats · 0.0%
Data table seats Share Hindutva-aligned 293 54.0% Opposed 250 46.0% Transactional 0 0.0% Neutral / not counted 0 0.0%
Figure 25.5. The 3 biggest of 3 (seats)Lok Sabha 2024 - NDA seats 293
Lok Sabha 2024 - INDIA seats 234
Lok Sabha 2024 - Others seats 16
Data table seats Side Lok Sabha 2024 - NDA seats 293 Hindutva-aligned Lok Sabha 2024 - INDIA seats 234 Opposed Lok Sabha 2024 - Others seats 16 Opposed
Figure 25.6. Over time: LS seats AAP, LS seats AIADMK, LS seats AITC and 3 more (seats of 543)0 100 200 300 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 LS seats AAP 2014: 4seats of 543 LS seats AIADMK 2014: 37seats of 543 LS seats AIADMK 2019: 1seats of 543 LS seats AIADMK 2024: 0seats of 543 LS seats AITC 2014: 34seats of 543 LS seats AITC 2019: 22seats of 543 LS seats AITC 2024: 29seats of 543 LS seats BJD 2014: 20seats of 543 LS seats BJD 2019: 12seats of 543 LS seats BJD 2024: 0seats of 543 LS seats BJP 2014: 282seats of 543 LS seats BJP 2019: 303seats of 543 LS seats BJP 2024: 240seats of 543 LS seats BSP 2014: 0seats of 543 LS seats BSP 2019: 10seats of 543 LS seats BSP 2024: 0seats of 543 240 29 4 0 0 0
Data table LS seats AAP LS seats AIADMK LS seats AITC LS seats BJD LS seats BJP LS seats BSP 2014 4 37 34 20 282 0 2019 1 22 12 303 10 2024 0 29 0 240 0
Measure 2. Latest assembly election in all 31 legislatures (population-weighted NDA share)
Reading 41.7%
NDA 41.7%, INDIA 39.2%, others 19.1% across the latest election in every state, weighted by population.
Figure 25.7. State elections 2024-26: NDA vs INDIA vote (%)Andhra Pradesh53.7m people 96.7% 55.3 : 1.89
Arunachal Pradesh1.6m people 90.8% 54.6 : 5.56
Sikkim0.7m people 99.5% 58.4 : 0.32
Odisha44.7m people 74.6% 40.1 : 13.6
Haryana31.3m people 50.4% 39.9 : 39.3
Jammu & Kashmir (UT)13.9m people 36.1% 25.6 : 45.5
Maharashtra129.3m people 58.4% 49.3 : 35.2
Jharkhand41.0m people 46.2% 38.1 : 44.3
NCT of Delhi22.5m people 48.6% 47.2 : 49.9
Bihar132.3m people 55.1% 46.6 : 37.9
Assam36.7m people 55.8% 48.0 : 38
Kerala36.2m people 14.4% 14.2 : 84.2
Tamil Nadu77.5m people 46.4% 27.2 : 31.4
West Bengal100.5m people 48.5% 45.9 : 48.8
Puducherry1.8m people 55.2% 38.7 : 31.4
Data table NDA INDIA NDA share Andhra Pradesh (53.7m people) 55.3 1.89 96.7% Arunachal Pradesh (1.6m people) 54.6 5.56 90.8% Sikkim (0.7m people) 58.4 0.32 99.5% Odisha (44.7m people) 40.1 13.6 74.6% Haryana (31.3m people) 39.9 39.3 50.4% Jammu & Kashmir (UT) (13.9m people) 25.6 45.5 36.1% Maharashtra (129.3m people) 49.3 35.2 58.4% Jharkhand (41.0m people) 38.1 44.3 46.2% NCT of Delhi (22.5m people) 47.2 49.9 48.6% Bihar (132.3m people) 46.6 37.9 55.1% Assam (36.7m people) 48.0 38 55.8% Kerala (36.2m people) 14.2 84.2 14.4% Tamil Nadu (77.5m people) 27.2 31.4 46.4% West Bengal (100.5m people) 45.9 48.8 48.5% Puducherry (1.8m people) 38.7 31.4 55.2%
Figure 25.8. Each counted row: the 15 highest of 93 (vote %)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading. Kerala 2026 assembly - INDIA vote 84.2
Mizoram 2023 assembly - Others vote 74.1
Punjab 2022 assembly - INDIA vote 65.0
Meghalaya 2023 assembly - Others vote 63.8
Sikkim 2024 assembly - NDA vote 58.4
Andhra Pradesh 2024 assembly - NDA vote 55.3
Arunachal Pradesh 2024 assembly - NDA vote 54.6
Gujarat 2022 assembly - NDA vote 52.5
Nagaland 2023 assembly - NDA vote 51.0
Delhi (NCT) 2025 assembly - INDIA vote 49.9
Maharashtra 2024 assembly - NDA vote 49.3
West Bengal 2026 assembly - INDIA vote 48.8
Madhya Pradesh 2023 assembly - NDA vote 48.6
Assam 2026 assembly - NDA vote 48.0
Delhi (NCT) 2025 assembly - NDA vote 47.2
0 100%
Data table vote % Side Kerala 2026 assembly - INDIA vote 84.2 Opposed Mizoram 2023 assembly - Others vote 74.1 Opposed Punjab 2022 assembly - INDIA vote 65.0 Opposed Meghalaya 2023 assembly - Others vote 63.8 Opposed Sikkim 2024 assembly - NDA vote 58.4 Hindutva-aligned Andhra Pradesh 2024 assembly - NDA vote 55.3 Hindutva-aligned Arunachal Pradesh 2024 assembly - NDA vote 54.6 Hindutva-aligned Gujarat 2022 assembly - NDA vote 52.5 Hindutva-aligned Nagaland 2023 assembly - NDA vote 51.0 Hindutva-aligned Delhi (NCT) 2025 assembly - INDIA vote 49.9 Opposed Maharashtra 2024 assembly - NDA vote 49.3 Hindutva-aligned West Bengal 2026 assembly - INDIA vote 48.8 Opposed Madhya Pradesh 2023 assembly - NDA vote 48.6 Hindutva-aligned Assam 2026 assembly - NDA vote 48.0 Hindutva-aligned Delhi (NCT) 2025 assembly - NDA vote 47.2 Hindutva-aligned
Figure 25.9. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (seats)
2,324 seats · 56.4%1,799 seats · 43.6%0 seats · 0.0%0 seats · 0.0%
Data table seats Share Hindutva-aligned 2,324 56.4% Opposed 1,799 43.6% Transactional 0 0.0% Neutral / not counted 0 0.0%
Figure 25.10. The 15 biggest of 89 (seats)Uttar Pradesh 2022 assembly - NDA seats 273
Maharashtra 2024 assembly - NDA seats 235
West Bengal 2026 assembly - NDA seats 208
Bihar 2025 assembly - NDA seats 202
Andhra Pradesh 2024 assembly - NDA seats 164
Madhya Pradesh 2023 assembly - NDA seats 163
Gujarat 2022 assembly - NDA seats 156
Kerala 2026 assembly - INDIA seats 137
Karnataka 2023 assembly - INDIA seats 136
Uttar Pradesh 2022 assembly - INDIA seats 127
Rajasthan 2023 assembly - NDA seats 115
Punjab 2022 assembly - INDIA seats 110
Tamil Nadu 2026 assembly - Others seats 108
Assam 2026 assembly - NDA seats 102
West Bengal 2026 assembly - INDIA seats 83
Data table seats Side Uttar Pradesh 2022 assembly - NDA seats 273 Hindutva-aligned Maharashtra 2024 assembly - NDA seats 235 Hindutva-aligned West Bengal 2026 assembly - NDA seats 208 Hindutva-aligned Bihar 2025 assembly - NDA seats 202 Hindutva-aligned Andhra Pradesh 2024 assembly - NDA seats 164 Hindutva-aligned Madhya Pradesh 2023 assembly - NDA seats 163 Hindutva-aligned Gujarat 2022 assembly - NDA seats 156 Hindutva-aligned Kerala 2026 assembly - INDIA seats 137 Opposed Karnataka 2023 assembly - INDIA seats 136 Opposed Uttar Pradesh 2022 assembly - INDIA seats 127 Opposed Rajasthan 2023 assembly - NDA seats 115 Hindutva-aligned Punjab 2022 assembly - INDIA seats 110 Opposed Tamil Nadu 2026 assembly - Others seats 108 Opposed Assam 2026 assembly - NDA seats 102 Hindutva-aligned West Bengal 2026 assembly - INDIA seats 83 Opposed
Figure 25.11. The 15 biggest of 36 (thousand persons)Uttar Pradesh population 2026 projection 2,42,859
Bihar population 2026 projection 1,32,265
Maharashtra population 2026 projection 1,29,308
West Bengal population 2026 projection 1,00,522
Madhya Pradesh population 2026 projection 89,673
Rajasthan population 2026 projection 83,642
Tamil Nadu population 2026 projection 77,546
Gujarat population 2026 projection 74,086
Karnataka population 2026 projection 68,962
Andhra Pradesh population 2026 projection 53,709
Odisha population 2026 projection 44,677
Jharkhand population 2026 projection 40,958
Telangana population 2026 projection 38,636
Assam population 2026 projection 36,717
Kerala population 2026 projection 36,207
Data table thousand persons Side Uttar Pradesh population 2026 projection 2,42,859 Neutral / not counted Bihar population 2026 projection 1,32,265 Neutral / not counted Maharashtra population 2026 projection 1,29,308 Neutral / not counted West Bengal population 2026 projection 1,00,522 Neutral / not counted Madhya Pradesh population 2026 projection 89,673 Neutral / not counted Rajasthan population 2026 projection 83,642 Neutral / not counted Tamil Nadu population 2026 projection 77,546 Neutral / not counted Gujarat population 2026 projection 74,086 Neutral / not counted Karnataka population 2026 projection 68,962 Neutral / not counted Andhra Pradesh population 2026 projection 53,709 Neutral / not counted Odisha population 2026 projection 44,677 Neutral / not counted Jharkhand population 2026 projection 40,958 Neutral / not counted Telangana population 2026 projection 38,636 Neutral / not counted Assam population 2026 projection 36,717 Neutral / not counted Kerala population 2026 projection 36,207 Neutral / not counted
Measure 3. Bypolls 2024-26 (seats won)
Reading 45.4%
NDA wins 54 vs Other wins 65
Figure 25.12. Bypolls 2024-26 (seats won)
Data table NDA wins Other wins NDA wins share Reading 54 65 45.4%
Figure 25.13. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (seats won)
54 seats won · 45.4%63 seats won · 52.9%0 seats won · 0.0%2 seats won · 1.7%
Data table seats won Share Hindutva-aligned 54 45.4% Opposed 63 52.9% Transactional 0 0.0% Neutral / not counted 2 1.7%
Figure 25.14. The 15 biggest of 119 (seats won)Wayanad Lok Sabha bypoll 2024 (Kerala) 1
Nanded Lok Sabha bypoll 2024 (Maharashtra) 1
Dholai assembly bypoll 2024 (Assam) 1
Sidli assembly bypoll 2024 (Assam) 1
Bongaigaon assembly bypoll 2024 (Assam) 1
Behali assembly bypoll 2024 (Assam) 1
Samaguri assembly bypoll 2024 (Assam) 1
Agiaon assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1
Rupauli assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1
Tarari assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1
Ramgarh assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1
Imamganj assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1
Belaganj assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1
Raipur City South assembly bypoll 2024 (Chhattisgarh) 1
Vijapur assembly bypoll 2024 (Gujarat) 1
Data table seats won Side Wayanad Lok Sabha bypoll 2024 (Kerala) 1 Opposed Nanded Lok Sabha bypoll 2024 (Maharashtra) 1 Opposed Dholai assembly bypoll 2024 (Assam) 1 Hindutva-aligned Sidli assembly bypoll 2024 (Assam) 1 Hindutva-aligned Bongaigaon assembly bypoll 2024 (Assam) 1 Hindutva-aligned Behali assembly bypoll 2024 (Assam) 1 Hindutva-aligned Samaguri assembly bypoll 2024 (Assam) 1 Hindutva-aligned Agiaon assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1 Opposed Rupauli assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1 Opposed Tarari assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1 Hindutva-aligned Ramgarh assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1 Hindutva-aligned Imamganj assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1 Hindutva-aligned Belaganj assembly bypoll 2024 (Bihar) 1 Hindutva-aligned Raipur City South assembly bypoll 2024 (Chhattisgarh) 1 Hindutva-aligned Vijapur assembly bypoll 2024 (Gujarat) 1 Hindutva-aligned
Figure 25.15. Over time: Bypoll NDA net gain, Bypoll NDA seats won, Bypoll seats contested · seats0 25 50 75 2024 2025 2026 Bypoll NDA net gain (gains minus losses) 2024: 12seats Bypoll NDA net gain (gains minus losses) 2025: 1seats Bypoll NDA net gain (gains minus losses) 2026: -1seats Bypoll NDA seats won (count) 2024: 40seats Bypoll NDA seats won (count) 2025: 4seats Bypoll NDA seats won (count) 2026: 10seats Bypoll seats contested (count) 2024: 88seats Bypoll seats contested (count) 2025: 15seats Bypoll seats contested (count) 2026: 16seats 16 10 -1
Data table Bypoll NDA net gain (gains minus losses) Bypoll NDA seats won (count) Bypoll seats contested (count) 2024 12 40 88 2025 1 4 15 2026 -1 10 16
Figure 25.16. Over time: Bypoll seats held by NDA before poll share, Bypoll seats won INDIA share, Bypoll seats won NDA share and 1 more · %0 20 40 60 2024 2025 2026 Bypoll seats held by NDA before poll share 2024: 31.8% Bypoll seats held by NDA before poll share 2025: 20% Bypoll seats held by NDA before poll share 2026: 68.8% Bypoll seats won INDIA share 2024: 52.3% Bypoll seats won INDIA share 2025: 66.7% Bypoll seats won INDIA share 2026: 18.8% Bypoll seats won NDA share 2024: 45.5% Bypoll seats won NDA share 2025: 26.7% Bypoll seats won NDA share 2026: 62.5% Bypoll seats won Others share 2024: 2.3% Bypoll seats won Others share 2025: 6.7% Bypoll seats won Others share 2026: 18.8% 68.8 62.5 18.8 18.8
Data table Bypoll seats held by NDA before poll share Bypoll seats won INDIA share Bypoll seats won NDA share Bypoll seats won Others share 2024 31.8 52.3 45.5 2.3 2025 20 66.7 26.7 6.7 2026 68.8 18.8 62.5 18.8
Measure 4. Women voters: the NDA’s share of all women’s votes
Reading 43.5%
NDA 44 vs Everyone else 56
Measure 5. Context: shown for reference, not part of the reading
Figure 25.17. Over time: LS vote AAP, LS vote AIADMK, LS vote AITC and 3 more · % of valid votes incl NOTA0 10 20 30 40 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 LS vote AAP 2014: 2.05% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote AIADMK 2014: 3.27% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote AIADMK 2019: 1.35% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote AIADMK 2024: 1.39% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote AITC 2014: 3.84% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote AITC 2019: 4.06% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote AITC 2024: 4.37% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote BJD 2014: 1.71% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote BJD 2019: 1.66% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote BJD 2024: 1.46% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote BJP 2014: 31% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote BJP 2019: 37.3% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote BJP 2024: 36.6% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote BSP 2014: 4.14% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote BSP 2019: 3.62% of valid votes incl NOTA LS vote BSP 2024: 2.04% of valid votes incl NOTA 36.6 4.37 2.05 2.04 1.46 1.39
Data table LS vote AAP LS vote AIADMK LS vote AITC LS vote BJD LS vote BJP LS vote BSP 2014 2.05 3.27 3.84 1.71 31 4.14 2019 1.35 4.06 1.66 37.3 3.62 2024 1.39 4.37 1.46 36.6 2.04
Figure 25.18. Over time: State assemblies NDA seat share · % of 4123 seats0 20 40 60 2025 2026 State assemblies NDA seat share (latest per state, unweighted seats) 2025: 53.0% of 4123 seats State assemblies NDA seat share (latest per state, unweighted seats) 2026: 56.4% of 4123 seats 56.4 Data table State assemblies NDA seat share (latest per state, unweighted seats) 2025 53.0 2026 56.4
Figure 25.19. Over time: State elections NDA share of NDA+INDIA vote, State elections held in year: pop-weighted INDI…, State elections held in year: pop-weighted NDA … and 3 more · %0 20 40 60 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 State elections NDA share of NDA+INDIA vote (pop-weighted, rolling 5y) 2025: 50.6% State elections NDA share of NDA+INDIA vote (pop-weighted, rolling 5y) 2026: 51.5% State elections held in year: pop-weighted INDIA vote 2021: 55.4% State elections held in year: pop-weighted INDIA vote 2022: 41.7% State elections held in year: pop-weighted INDIA vote 2023: 40.8% State elections held in year: pop-weighted INDIA vote 2024: 28.3% State elections held in year: pop-weighted INDIA vote 2025: 39.7% State elections held in year: pop-weighted INDIA vote 2026: 46.8% State elections held in year: pop-weighted NDA vote 2021: 35.8% State elections held in year: pop-weighted NDA vote 2022: 42.4% State elections held in year: pop-weighted NDA vote 2023: 39.1% State elections held in year: pop-weighted NDA vote 2024: 45.7% State elections held in year: pop-weighted NDA vote 2025: 46.7% State elections held in year: pop-weighted NDA vote 2026: 35.9% State elections pop-weighted BJP-alone vote (rolling 5y, latest per state) 2025: 32.1% State elections pop-weighted BJP-alone vote (rolling 5y, latest per state) 2026: 32.8% State elections pop-weighted INDIA vote (rolling 5y, latest per state) 2025: 40.7% State elections pop-weighted INDIA vote (rolling 5y, latest per state) 2026: 39.2% State elections pop-weighted NDA vote (rolling 5y, latest per state) 2025: 41.7% State elections pop-weighted NDA vote (rolling 5y, latest per state) 2026: 41.7% 51.5 46.8 41.7 39.2 35.9 32.8
Data table State elections NDA share of NDA+INDIA vote (pop-weighted, rolling 5y) State elections held in year: pop-weighted INDIA vote State elections held in year: pop-weighted NDA vote State elections pop-weighted BJP-alone vote (rolling 5y, latest per state) State elections pop-weighted INDIA vote (rolling 5y, latest per state) State elections pop-weighted NDA vote (rolling 5y, latest per state) 2021 55.4 35.8 2022 41.7 42.4 2023 40.8 39.1 2024 28.3 45.7 2025 50.6 39.7 46.7 32.1 40.7 41.7 2026 51.5 46.8 35.9 32.8 39.2 41.7
Figure 25.20. Women voters: the NDA’s share of all women’s votes
Data table NDA Everyone else NDA share Reading 43.5 56.5 43.5%
25.6 Evidence baseThe arena rests on 525 coded units and 155 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 190 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 277 opposed and 58 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 36 grade A, 489 grade C.
The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).