The India Power Atlas
Part VII · Elections
Chapter 26

The Conversion of Votes into Seats

Arena 6.2 · weight 4 · reading 50.7 · contested

26.1Scope

Turning votes into seats, seat by seat.1

The arena is measured by all 543 constituencies (seats won, seats held after a stress swing, battlegrounds), assembly seats held in every state, and big-city corporations.

26.2Significance

The Lok Sabha majority and how fragile it is.

26.3Indicators and weights

Table 26.1 lists the 5 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).

Table 26.1. Indicators of arena 6.2

IndicatorWeightReading
Seats won0.2554.0
Seats held after stress swing0.4041.3
Battleground seats won (margin < 5)0.1552.1
Assembly seats held now (31 legislatures)0.1560.2
Big-city corporations (budget-weighted)20.0577.2
Arena reading1.0050.7

26.4Reading

The arena reads 50.7, 0.7 points above parity, and is classified as contested (a reading from 45 to below 60). With a weight of 4 of a total 107.7, it contributes 1.88 points to the composite reading of 45.7.

The indicators diverge: the highest reading is for big-city corporations (budget-weighted) (77.2), the lowest for seats held after stress swing (41.3).

Figure 26.1. Readings of arena 6.2 by indicator
050100
Seats won54.0
Seats held after stress swing41.3
Battleground seats won (margin < 5)52.1
Assembly seats held now (31 legislatures)60.2
Big-city corporations (budget-weighted)77.2
Arena reading50.7
Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.

26.5Measures and exhibits

The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).

Measure 1. Seats won

Reading 54.0%

293 of 543 seats with the national and state swings applied.

Figure 26.2. Seats by state in this scenario
Uttar Pradesh80
Maharashtra48
West Bengal42
Bihar40
Tamil Nadu39
Madhya Pradesh29
Karnataka28
Gujarat26
Andhra Pradesh25
Rajasthan25
Odisha21
Kerala20
Telangana17
Assam14
Jharkhand14
Punjab13
Chhattisgarh11
Haryana10
NCT OF Delhi7
Uttarakhand5
NDAINDIAOthers
Data table
NDAINDIAOthersTotal
Uttar Pradesh3643180
Maharashtra1730148
West Bengal1230042
Bihar309140
Tamil Nadu039039
Madhya Pradesh290029
Karnataka199028
Gujarat251026
Andhra Pradesh210425
Rajasthan1411025
Odisha201021
Kerala119020
Telangana88117
Assam113014
Jharkhand95014
Punjab010313
Chhattisgarh101011
Haryana55010
NCT OF Delhi7007
Uttarakhand5005

Measure 2. Seats held after stress swing

Reading 41.3%

224 of 543 seats kept after a further 3-point swing against.

Figure 26.3. NDA Lok Sabha seats under a uniform swing (points to NDA)Each point re-runs all 543 seats; state swings set in Reshape Power are kept.
0200400-7.5-5-2.502.557.5majority 272NDA seats -8: 127NDA seats -7.5: 134NDA seats -7: 146NDA seats -6.5: 155NDA seats -6: 165NDA seats -5.5: 172NDA seats -5: 183NDA seats -4.5: 190NDA seats -4: 202NDA seats -3.5: 215NDA seats -3: 224NDA seats -2.5: 234NDA seats -2: 251NDA seats -1.5: 263NDA seats -1: 276NDA seats -0.5: 282NDA seats 0: 293NDA seats 0.5: 300NDA seats 1: 316NDA seats 1.5: 328NDA seats 2: 340NDA seats 2.5: 349NDA seats 3: 364NDA seats 3.5: 377NDA seats 4: 384NDA seats 4.5: 392NDA seats 5: 403NDA seats 5.5: 414NDA seats 6: 426NDA seats 6.5: 430NDA seats 7: 437NDA seats 7.5: 443NDA seats 8: 451451
Data table
NDA seats
-8127
-7.5134
-7146
-6.5155
-6165
-5.5172
-5183
-4.5190
-4202
-3.5215
-3224
-2.5234
-2251
-1.5263
-1276
-0.5282
0293
0.5300
1316
1.5328
2340
2.5349
3364
3.5377
4384
4.5392
5403
5.5414
6426
6.5430
First 30 of 33 rows; all rows are in the data file (Appendix D).

Measure 3. Battleground seats won (margin < 5)

Reading 52.1%

63 of 121 seats decided by under 5 points.

Measure 4. Assembly seats held now (31 legislatures)

Reading 60.2%

Figure 26.4. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (seats)
Hindutva-aligned 2,471 seats · 59.9%Opposed 1,633 seats · 39.6%Transactional 0 seats · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 22 seats · 0.5%
Data table
seatsShare
Hindutva-aligned2,47159.9%
Opposed1,63339.6%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted220.5%
Figure 26.5. The 15 biggest of 215 (seats)
Uttar Pradesh: BJP256
West Bengal: BJP209
Madhya Pradesh: BJP165
Gujarat: BJP162
Karnataka: INC136
Andhra Pradesh: TDP135
Maharashtra: BJP132
Rajasthan: BJP117
Tamil Nadu: TVK109
Uttar Pradesh: SP100
Punjab: AAP95
Bihar: BJP88
Bihar: JD(U)84
Assam: BJP82
Odisha: BJP79
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
seatsSide
Uttar Pradesh: BJP256Hindutva-aligned
West Bengal: BJP209Hindutva-aligned
Madhya Pradesh: BJP165Hindutva-aligned
Gujarat: BJP162Hindutva-aligned
Karnataka: INC136Opposed
Andhra Pradesh: TDP135Hindutva-aligned
Maharashtra: BJP132Hindutva-aligned
Rajasthan: BJP117Hindutva-aligned
Tamil Nadu: TVK109Opposed
Uttar Pradesh: SP100Opposed
Punjab: AAP95Opposed
Bihar: BJP88Hindutva-aligned
Bihar: JD(U)84Hindutva-aligned
Assam: BJP82Hindutva-aligned
Odisha: BJP79Hindutva-aligned

Measure 5. Big-city corporations (budget-weighted)

Reading 77.2%

BMC, Delhi MCD, Pune, Ahmedabad, Lucknow … (8 corporations, seats_units.csv); Kolkata left out until its Dec 2026 election (owner, round 2 D10)

Figure 26.6. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (seats)
Hindutva-aligned 794 seats · 53.2%Opposed 698 seats · 46.8%Transactional 0 seats · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 0 seats · 0.0%
Data table
seatsShare
Hindutva-aligned79453.2%
Opposed69846.8%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted00.0%
Figure 26.7. The 15 biggest of 45 (seats)
Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation: BJP160
Greater Chennai Corporation: DMK153
MCD (Delhi): BJP138
Pune Municipal Corporation: BJP119
MCD (Delhi): AAP102
Greater Bengaluru (BBMP, last council): BJP100
BMC (Mumbai): BJP89
Lucknow Municipal Corporation: BJP80
Greater Bengaluru (BBMP, last council): INC76
BMC (Mumbai): SS(UBT)65
GHMC (Hyderabad, last council): BRS56
GHMC (Hyderabad, last council): BJP48
GHMC (Hyderabad, last council): AIMIM44
Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation: INC32
BMC (Mumbai): SHS29
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
seatsSide
Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation: BJP160Hindutva-aligned
Greater Chennai Corporation: DMK153Opposed
MCD (Delhi): BJP138Hindutva-aligned
Pune Municipal Corporation: BJP119Hindutva-aligned
MCD (Delhi): AAP102Opposed
Greater Bengaluru (BBMP, last council): BJP100Hindutva-aligned
BMC (Mumbai): BJP89Hindutva-aligned
Lucknow Municipal Corporation: BJP80Hindutva-aligned
Greater Bengaluru (BBMP, last council): INC76Opposed
BMC (Mumbai): SS(UBT)65Opposed
GHMC (Hyderabad, last council): BRS56Opposed
GHMC (Hyderabad, last council): BJP48Hindutva-aligned
GHMC (Hyderabad, last council): AIMIM44Opposed
Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation: INC32Opposed
BMC (Mumbai): SHS29Hindutva-aligned
Figure 26.8. Each counted row (% seats NDA)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation: control83.3
Lucknow Municipal Corporation: control72.7
Pune Municipal Corporation: control72.1
Greater Bengaluru (BBMP, last council): control57.6
MCD (Delhi): control55.2
BMC (Mumbai): control52
GHMC (Hyderabad, last council): control32
Greater Chennai Corporation: control8.5
0100%
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
% seats NDASide
Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation: control83.3Hindutva-aligned
Lucknow Municipal Corporation: control72.7Hindutva-aligned
Pune Municipal Corporation: control72.1Hindutva-aligned
Greater Bengaluru (BBMP, last council): control57.6Opposed
MCD (Delhi): control55.2Hindutva-aligned
BMC (Mumbai): control52Hindutva-aligned
GHMC (Hyderabad, last council): control32Opposed
Greater Chennai Corporation: control8.5Opposed
Figure 26.9. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (₹ crore)
Hindutva-aligned 1,37,415 ₹ crore · 77.2%Opposed 40,678 ₹ crore · 22.8%Transactional 0 ₹ crore · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 0 ₹ crore · 0.0%
Data table
₹ croreShare
Hindutva-aligned1,37,41577.2%
Opposed40,67822.8%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted00.0%
Figure 26.10. The 8 biggest of 8 (₹ crore)
BMC (Mumbai): annual budget80,952
Greater Bengaluru (BBMP, last council): annual budget20,218
Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation: annual budget18,518
MCD (Delhi): annual budget17,583
Pune Municipal Corporation: annual budget15,669
GHMC (Hyderabad, last council): annual budget11,460
Greater Chennai Corporation: annual budget9,000
Lucknow Municipal Corporation: annual budget4,693
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
₹ croreSide
BMC (Mumbai): annual budget80,952Hindutva-aligned
Greater Bengaluru (BBMP, last council): annual budget20,218Opposed
Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation: annual budget18,518Hindutva-aligned
MCD (Delhi): annual budget17,583Hindutva-aligned
Pune Municipal Corporation: annual budget15,669Hindutva-aligned
GHMC (Hyderabad, last council): annual budget11,460Opposed
Greater Chennai Corporation: annual budget9,000Opposed
Lucknow Municipal Corporation: annual budget4,693Hindutva-aligned

26.6Evidence base

The arena rests on 315 coded units. Of the units and flows, 127 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 179 opposed and 9 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 315 grade C.

The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).

Notes

  1. ECI GE2024 (543 seats). ↩
  2. BMC, Delhi MCD, Pune, Ahmedabad, Lucknow … (8 corporations, seats_units.csv); Kolkata left out until its Dec 2026 election (owner, round 2 D10). ↩