The arena is measured by Best-PM preference against every named rival, rating of the PM’s performance, the NES 2024 PM choice and approval polls.
27.2Significance
Campaign surges and coalition glue; tied to one face.
27.3Indicators and weights
Table 27.1 lists the 4 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).
The arena reads 60.0, 10.0 points above parity, and is classified as aligned majority (a reading of 60 or above). With a weight of 3 of a total 107.7, it contributes 1.67 points to the composite reading of 45.7.
The indicators diverge: the highest reading is for Morning Consult approval (Mar 2026) (72.3), the lowest for best PM vs all named rivals (MOTN Aug 2026) (53.4).
Figure 27.1. Readings of arena 6.3 by indicator
050100
Best PM vs all named rivals (MOTN Aug 2026)53.4
PM performance good/outstanding vs poor (MOTN)65.4
Lokniti NES 2024 PM choice60.3
Morning Consult approval (Mar 2026)72.3
Arena reading60.0
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.
27.5Measures and exhibits
The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).
Measure 1. Best PM vs all named rivals (MOTN Aug 2026)
Figure 27.2. Best person to be the next PM, % of respondentsIndia Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation and Lokniti, each edition.
ModiRahul Gandhi
Data table
Modi
Rahul Gandhi
2024.58
49.1
22.4
2025.08
51.2
24.9
2025.58
51.5
24.7
2026
54.7
26.6
2026.58
48.7
27.1
Figure 27.3. Each counted row (% respondents)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Narendra Modi48.7
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Rahul Gandhi27.1
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: C. Joseph Vijay9.2
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: others/none/cannot say8.8
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Mamata Banerjee2
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Akhilesh Yadav1.7
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Abhijeet Dipke1.3
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Arvind Kejriwal1.2
0100%
Hindutva-alignedOpposedNeutral / not counted
Data table
% respondents
Side
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Narendra Modi
48.7
Hindutva-aligned
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Rahul Gandhi
27.1
Opposed
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: C. Joseph Vijay
9.2
Opposed
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: others/none/cannot say
8.8
Neutral / not counted
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Mamata Banerjee
2
Opposed
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Akhilesh Yadav
1.7
Opposed
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Abhijeet Dipke
1.3
Opposed
MOTN Aug 2026 best PM: Arvind Kejriwal
1.2
Opposed
Figure 27.4. Over time: MOTN best PM (Modi, Rahul Gandhi, Vijay and 3 more) · % respondents
MOTN best PM: ModiMOTN best PM: Rahul GandhiMOTN best PM: Vijay (TVK)MOTN best PM: Abhijeet Dipke (CJP)MOTN best PM: Arvind KejriwalMOTN best PM: Amit Shah
Data table
MOTN best PM: Modi
MOTN best PM: Rahul Gandhi
MOTN best PM: Vijay (TVK)
MOTN best PM: Abhijeet Dipke (CJP)
MOTN best PM: Arvind Kejriwal
MOTN best PM: Amit Shah
2018
49
27
2019
34
2020
66
8
2021
24
10
2022
53
9
2023
52.3
15.8
2024
49.1
22.4
2025
51.5
24.7
2.3
2026
48.7
27.1
9.2
1.3
1.2
Figure 27.5. Over time: MOTN best PM (Modi minus Rahul) · percentage pointsData table
MOTN best PM: Modi minus Rahul (pts)
2018
22
2020
58
2021
14
2022
44
2023
36.5
2024
26.7
2025
26.8
2026
21.6
Measure 2. PM performance good/outstanding vs poor (MOTN)
Reading 65.4%
51 vs 27
Figure 27.6. Each counted row (% respondents)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Measure 5. Context: shown for reference, not part of the reading
Figure 27.9. Over time: MOTN projected Lok Sabha vote share (NDA, INDIA) · % vote
MOTN projected Lok Sabha vote share: NDAMOTN projected Lok Sabha vote share: INDIA
Data table
MOTN projected Lok Sabha vote share: NDA
MOTN projected Lok Sabha vote share: INDIA
2024
44
40
2025
46.7
41
2026
45.1
39.1
Figure 27.10. Over time: MOTN best CM nationally (Yogi Adityanath, Arvind Kejriwal, Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy and 1 more) · % respondents
MOTN best CM nationally: Yogi Adityanath (BJP)MOTN best CM nationally: Arvind Kejriwal (AAP)MOTN best CM nationally: Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy (YSRCP)MOTN best CM nationally: Mamata Banerjee (AITC)
Data table
MOTN best CM nationally: Yogi Adityanath (BJP)
MOTN best CM nationally: Arvind Kejriwal (AAP)
MOTN best CM nationally: Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy (YSRCP)
MOTN best CM nationally: Mamata Banerjee (AITC)
2020
24
15
11
9
2022
40
2025
35.3
Figure 27.11. Over time: Lokniti satisfied with central govt · % somewhat/fully satisfiedData table
Lokniti satisfied with central (NDA) govt
2019
65
2024
57
Figure 27.12. Over time: Lokniti dissatisfied with central govt · %Data table
Lokniti dissatisfied with central (NDA) govt
2019
30
2023
40.2
2024
39
Figure 27.13. Over time: Lokniti satisfied with central govt, Morning Consult Modi approve · % approve
Lokniti satisfied with central (NDA) govtMorning Consult Modi approve
The arena rests on 23 coded units and 125 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 11 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 11 opposed and 1 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 7 grade B, 16 grade C.
The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).