The India Power Atlas
Part IX · External Actors
Chapter 41

Pakistan, Bangladesh and Transnational Islamist Networks

Arena 8.5 · weight 2.35 · reading 61.5 · aligned majority

41.1Scope

Islamist networks and the OIC bloc; Pakistan (its state, army and armed groups) and Bangladesh; and domestic networks they fund or inspire, such as the banned PFI.

Principal evidence: Mean of two contests. Abroad: India’s counter-leverage 6/10 (Operation Sindoor, NIA, PFI ban, FATF, Gulf partners) vs the networks’ external reach (65%). At home: the Hindutva core (18.8% of voters) vs the consolidated Muslim political bloc (12.8% of voters: 14.2% of Indians, ~90% voting against the NDA in 2024; Muslims are 20%+ of the population in 96 of 543 Lok Sabha seats) = 60%.

41.2Significance

Oil and gas, Gulf remittances, terror and war on the western front, the eastern border and infiltration, Kashmir and OIC diplomacy, and street mobilisation at home.

41.3Indicators and weights

Table 41.1 lists the 10 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).

Table 41.1. Indicators of arena 8.5

IndicatorWeightReading
Islamist networks & OIC: At home: Hindutva core vs Muslim political bloc (% of voters)0.1459.5
Islamist networks & OIC: Security: J&K exchange ratio 2014-2310.0664.8
Islamist networks & OIC: Security now: Islamist terror at home 2024-26 (J&K and the hinterland)20.0652.2
Pakistan: Security: Lowy military and J&K exchange ratio30.2565.6
Pakistan: Economic (Lowy)0.0687.1
Pakistan: Narrative (Lowy diplomatic, cultural)0.1178.8
Pakistan: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)40.0414.0
Bangladesh: Comprehensive power (Lowy 2025: India 40.0 vs Bangladesh 9.0)50.1081.6
Bangladesh: Contest of documented acts since Aug 202460.0716.7
Bangladesh: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)40.0114.0
Arena reading1.0061.5

41.4Reading

The arena reads 61.5, 11.5 points above parity, and is classified as aligned majority (a reading of 60 or above). With a weight of 2.35 of a total 107.7, it contributes 1.34 points to the composite reading of 45.7.

The indicators diverge: the highest reading is for Pakistan: Economic (Lowy) (87.1), the lowest for Pakistan: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together) (14.0).

Figure 41.1. Readings of arena 8.5 by indicator
050100
Islamist networks & OIC: At home: Hindutva core vs Muslim political bloc (% of voters)59.5
Islamist networks & OIC: Security: J&K exchange ratio 2014-2364.8
Islamist networks & OIC: Security now: Islamist terror at home 2024-26 (J&K and the hinterland)52.2
Pakistan: Security: Lowy military and J&K exchange ratio65.6
Pakistan: Economic (Lowy)87.1
Pakistan: Narrative (Lowy diplomatic, cultural)78.8
Pakistan: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)14.0
Bangladesh: Comprehensive power (Lowy 2025: India 40.0 vs Bangladesh 9.0)81.6
Bangladesh: Contest of documented acts since Aug 202416.7
Bangladesh: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)14.0
Arena reading61.5
Hindutva-alignedOpposed

Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.

41.5Measures and exhibits

The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).

Measure 1. Islamist networks & OIC: At home: Hindutva core vs Muslim political bloc (% of voters)

Reading 59.5%

Hindutva core 19 vs Muslim bloc 13

Figure 41.2. Islamist networks & OIC: At home: Hindutva core vs Muslim political bloc (% of voters)
Reading59.5%18.8 : 12.8
Hindutva coreMuslim bloc
Data table
Hindutva coreMuslim blocHindutva core share
Reading18.812.859.5%
Figure 41.3. The 6 biggest of 6 (seats)
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >20%101
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >20% / >30%80
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share 20-39.9%67
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim share of electorate >30%50
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >=40%29
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >50% (majority)15
Data table
seatsSide
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >20%101Opposed
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >20% / >30%80Opposed
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share 20-39.9%67Opposed
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim share of electorate >30%50Opposed
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >=40%29Opposed
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >50% (majority)15Opposed
Figure 41.4. Each counted row (% of Muslim voters)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Muslim political bloc: Muslim vote to INDIA bloc 202465
0100%
Data table
% of Muslim votersSide
Muslim political bloc: Muslim vote to INDIA bloc 202465Opposed

Measure 2. Islamist networks & OIC: Security: J&K exchange ratio 2014-23

Reading 64.9%

Terrorists killed 1753 vs security forces and civilians 950 (SATP)

Measure 3. Islamist networks & OIC: Security now: Islamist terror at home 2024-26 (J&K and the hinterland)

Reading 52.2%

Terrorists killed 132 vs Security forces and civilians killed 121

Measure 4. Islamist networks & OIC: Abroad: counter-leverage vs external reach (judgement, not measured)

Reading 65.3%

Replaced by the measured arena India Abroad: Diaspora & Soft Power.

Figure 41.5. The 15 biggest of 44 (US$ million)
Gulf-GCC: India merchandise imports from West Asia- GCC1,22,943
Gulf-GCC: India merchandise imports from West Asia- GCC1,21,666
Gulf-UAE: India merchandise imports from U ARAB EMTS63,889
Gulf-UAE: India merchandise imports from U ARAB EMTS63,403
Gulf-GCC: India merchandise exports to West Asia- GCC56,875
Gulf-GCC: India merchandise exports to West Asia- GCC55,713
Gulf-UAE: India merchandise exports to U ARAB EMTS37,359
Gulf-UAE: India merchandise exports to U ARAB EMTS36,638
Gulf-SaudiArabia: India merchandise imports from SAUDI ARAB30,790
Gulf-SaudiArabia: India merchandise imports from SAUDI ARAB30,121
Gulf-Qatar: India merchandise imports from QATAR12,464
Gulf-Qatar: India merchandise imports from QATAR12,293
Gulf-SaudiArabia: India merchandise exports to SAUDI ARAB11,757
Gulf-SaudiArabia: India merchandise exports to SAUDI ARAB10,281
Gulf-Kuwait: India merchandise imports from KUWAIT8,286
Data table
US$ millionSide
Gulf-GCC: India merchandise imports from West Asia- GCC1,22,943Opposed
Gulf-GCC: India merchandise imports from West Asia- GCC1,21,666Opposed
Gulf-UAE: India merchandise imports from U ARAB EMTS63,889Opposed
Gulf-UAE: India merchandise imports from U ARAB EMTS63,403Opposed
Gulf-GCC: India merchandise exports to West Asia- GCC56,875Opposed
Gulf-GCC: India merchandise exports to West Asia- GCC55,713Opposed
Gulf-UAE: India merchandise exports to U ARAB EMTS37,359Opposed
Gulf-UAE: India merchandise exports to U ARAB EMTS36,638Opposed
Gulf-SaudiArabia: India merchandise imports from SAUDI ARAB30,790Opposed
Gulf-SaudiArabia: India merchandise imports from SAUDI ARAB30,121Opposed
Gulf-Qatar: India merchandise imports from QATAR12,464Opposed
Gulf-Qatar: India merchandise imports from QATAR12,293Opposed
Gulf-SaudiArabia: India merchandise exports to SAUDI ARAB11,757Opposed
Gulf-SaudiArabia: India merchandise exports to SAUDI ARAB10,281Opposed
Gulf-Kuwait: India merchandise imports from KUWAIT8,286Opposed
Figure 41.6. Each counted row (percent)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Gulf-Oman: growth of India imports from OMAN9.43
Gulf-Bahrain: growth of India imports from BAHARAIN IS5.25
Gulf-SaudiArabia: growth of India imports from SAUDI ARAB2.22
Gulf-UAE: growth of India exports to U ARAB EMTS1.97
Gulf-UAE: growth of India imports from U ARAB EMTS0.77
0100%
Data table
percentSide
Gulf-Oman: growth of India imports from OMAN9.43Neutral / not counted
Gulf-Bahrain: growth of India imports from BAHARAIN IS5.25Neutral / not counted
Gulf-SaudiArabia: growth of India imports from SAUDI ARAB2.22Neutral / not counted
Gulf-UAE: growth of India exports to U ARAB EMTS1.97Neutral / not counted
Gulf-UAE: growth of India imports from U ARAB EMTS0.77Neutral / not counted
Figure 41.7. Each counted row (%)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
UAE: UAE share of India LPG imports40.5
UAE: UAE share of India LPG imports39
GCC: GCC (UAE, Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain) share of inward remittances38
Qatar: Qatar share of India LPG imports22
UAE: Share of India inward remittances (banks)19.2
Saudi Arabia: Saudi share of India LPG imports15
Kuwait: Kuwait share of India LPG imports14.7
Saudi Arabia: Share of India inward remittances (banks)6.7
Qatar: Share of India inward remittances (banks)4.1
Kuwait: Share of India inward remittances (banks)3.9
Oman: Share of India inward remittances (banks)2.5
Qatar: Qatar share of India LNG imports1.72
Bahrain: Share of India inward remittances (banks)1.5
0100%
Data table
%Side
UAE: UAE share of India LPG imports40.5Opposed
UAE: UAE share of India LPG imports39Opposed
GCC: GCC (UAE, Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain) share of inward remittances38Opposed
Qatar: Qatar share of India LPG imports22Opposed
UAE: Share of India inward remittances (banks)19.2Opposed
Saudi Arabia: Saudi share of India LPG imports15Opposed
Kuwait: Kuwait share of India LPG imports14.7Opposed
Saudi Arabia: Share of India inward remittances (banks)6.7Opposed
Qatar: Share of India inward remittances (banks)4.1Opposed
Kuwait: Share of India inward remittances (banks)3.9Opposed
Oman: Share of India inward remittances (banks)2.5Opposed
Qatar: Qatar share of India LNG imports1.72Opposed
Bahrain: Share of India inward remittances (banks)1.5Opposed
Figure 41.8. The 13 biggest of 13 (USD mn)
UAE: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 202625,586
Saudi Arabia: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 20263,316
UAE: FDI equity inflow FY2023-24 / FY2024-25 / FY2025-262,924
UAE: FDI equity inflow calendar 20252,654
Qatar: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 20261,777
Oman: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 2026618
Qatar: FDI equity inflow calendar 2025267
Bahrain: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 2026187
Kuwait: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 202698.9
Saudi Arabia: FDI equity inflow calendar 202554.2
Oman: FDI equity inflow calendar 202517.2
Kuwait: FDI equity inflow calendar 20252.37
Bahrain: FDI equity inflow calendar 20250.44
Data table
USD mnSide
UAE: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 202625,586Opposed
Saudi Arabia: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 20263,316Opposed
UAE: FDI equity inflow FY2023-24 / FY2024-25 / FY2025-262,924Opposed
UAE: FDI equity inflow calendar 20252,654Opposed
Qatar: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 20261,777Opposed
Oman: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 2026618Opposed
Qatar: FDI equity inflow calendar 2025267Opposed
Bahrain: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 2026187Opposed
Kuwait: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 202698.9Opposed
Saudi Arabia: FDI equity inflow calendar 202554.2Opposed
Oman: FDI equity inflow calendar 202517.2Opposed
Kuwait: FDI equity inflow calendar 20252.37Opposed
Bahrain: FDI equity inflow calendar 20250.44Opposed
Figure 41.9. The 6 biggest of 6 (persons)
UAE: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)34,25,144
Saudi Arabia: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)25,94,947
Kuwait: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)10,29,861
Oman: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)7,81,141
Qatar: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)7,46,550
Bahrain: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)3,26,658
Data table
personsSide
UAE: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)34,25,144Neutral / not counted
Saudi Arabia: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)25,94,947Neutral / not counted
Kuwait: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)10,29,861Neutral / not counted
Oman: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)7,81,141Neutral / not counted
Qatar: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)7,46,550Neutral / not counted
Bahrain: Overseas Indians (NRI + PIO)3,26,658Neutral / not counted
Figure 41.10. Each counted row (% of value)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Global Islam: GCC share of LPG imports (HS 271112 + 271113) FY2024-2595.1
Global Islam: GCC share of LPG imports (HS 271112 propane + 271113 butane) FY2025-2687.8
Global Islam: OIC share of LNG imports (HS 27111100) FY2025-2676.1
Global Islam: OIC share of LNG imports (HS 27111100) FY2024-2572.3
Global Islam: OIC share of India hydrocarbon import bill (crude + LNG + LPG) FY2025-2659.6
Global Islam: OIC share of crude oil imports (HS 2709) FY2025-2655.2
Global Islam: OIC share of crude oil imports (HS 2709) FY2024-2551.6
0100%
Data table
% of valueSide
Global Islam: GCC share of LPG imports (HS 271112 + 271113) FY2024-2595.1Opposed
Global Islam: GCC share of LPG imports (HS 271112 propane + 271113 butane) FY2025-2687.8Opposed
Global Islam: OIC share of LNG imports (HS 27111100) FY2025-2676.1Opposed
Global Islam: OIC share of LNG imports (HS 27111100) FY2024-2572.3Opposed
Global Islam: OIC share of India hydrocarbon import bill (crude + LNG + LPG) FY2025-2659.6Opposed
Global Islam: OIC share of crude oil imports (HS 2709) FY2025-2655.2Opposed
Global Islam: OIC share of crude oil imports (HS 2709) FY2024-2551.6Opposed

Measure 5. Islamist networks & OIC: Formal religious money (FCRA)

Reading 94.5%

Hindu ₹328 cr vs Muslim ₹19 cr; informal Gulf money NO DATA, so weight 0

Figure 41.11. The 2 biggest of 2 (₹ crore)
Islamic Relief254
Helping Hand for Relief and Development0.7
Data table
₹ croreSide
Islamic Relief254Opposed
Helping Hand for Relief and Development0.7Opposed
Figure 41.12. The 3 biggest of 3 ($ billion)
Saudi investment pledge ($100 bn, Feb 2019)100
UAE investment target in India ($75 bn, Aug 2015 joint statement)75
Qatar investment commitment ($10 bn, Feb 2025)10
Data table
$ billionSide
Saudi investment pledge ($100 bn, Feb 2019)100Neutral / not counted
UAE investment target in India ($75 bn, Aug 2015 joint statement)75Neutral / not counted
Qatar investment commitment ($10 bn, Feb 2025)10Neutral / not counted
Figure 41.13. The money flow: from whom, through which camp, to where30 flows counted, ₹488 crore.
faith-based / church agency → Opposed: ₹342 crfoundation → Opposed: ₹130 crdiaspora charity → Opposed: ₹15 crfaith-based / church agency → Neutral / not counted: ₹1 crOpposed → Indian grantee: ₹487 crNeutral / not counted → Indian grantee: ₹1 crfaith-based / church agency: ₹344 crfaith-based / church agency ·₹344foundation: ₹130 crfoundation · ₹130diaspora charity: ₹15 crdiaspora charity · ₹15.1Opposed: ₹487 cr99.8%Neutral / not counted: ₹1 crIndian grantee: ₹488 crIndian grantee · ₹488
Opposed ₹487 cr · 99.8%Neutral / not counted ₹1 cr · 0.2%
Left: where the money comes from · Middle: the camp it strengthens · Right: where it goes
Figure 41.14. The biggest sources, by the camp their money strengthens (₹ crore)
Islamic Relief USA243
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation77.3
Laudes Foundation43.0
Kokni Muslim Association Birmingham35.8
AFMI15.1
The Ma'Arif Foundation Uk10.0
Human Concern International (Hci)9.16
Van Leer Foundation8.62
Islamic Relief - Ir Canada8.22
The Matliwala Family Charitable Trust4.55
International Islamic Link4.34
Molvi Ebrahim Mulla Foundation4.03
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactionalNeutral / not counted
Data table
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactionalNeutral / not countedTotal
Islamic Relief USA024300243
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation077.30077.3
Laudes Foundation043.00043.0
Kokni Muslim Association Birmingham035.80035.8
AFMI015.10015.1
The Ma'Arif Foundation Uk010.00010.0
Human Concern International (Hci)09.16009.16
Van Leer Foundation08.62008.62
Islamic Relief - Ir Canada08.22008.22
The Matliwala Family Charitable Trust04.55004.55
International Islamic Link04.34004.34
Molvi Ebrahim Mulla Foundation04.03004.03
Figure 41.15. The biggest recipients (₹ crore)
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of Isl243
Aga Khan Foundation108
total expenditure of India-only charity (proxy; 58.6
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of AFM15.1
Islamic Relief Worldwide8.22
Aga Khan Foundation: India office6.71
Aga Khan University6.54
Aga Khan Rural Support Programme (India)5.9
'Transfer to India' (hospital and others)4.03
award to Matliwala School of Bharuch Gujarat (Da3.96
Darul Uloom Rahmania; Jamia Islamia Ishaatul Ulo3.59
Darul Uloom Rahmania; JAMIA ISLAMIA ISHAATUL ULO3.5
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactionalNeutral / not counted
Data table
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactionalNeutral / not countedTotal
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of Isl024300243
Aga Khan Foundation010800108
total expenditure of India-only charity (proxy; 058.60058.6
Partner organisations in South Asia/India of AFM015.10015.1
Islamic Relief Worldwide08.22008.22
Aga Khan Foundation: India office06.71006.71
Aga Khan University06.54006.54
Aga Khan Rural Support Programme (India)05.9005.9
'Transfer to India' (hospital and others)04.03004.03
award to Matliwala School of Bharuch Gujarat (Da03.96003.96
Darul Uloom Rahmania; Jamia Islamia Ishaatul Ulo03.59003.59
Darul Uloom Rahmania; JAMIA ISLAMIA ISHAATUL ULO03.5003.5
Figure 41.16. By country of origin (₹ crore)
US336
GB80.5
CH43.0
CA19.8
NL8.62
Not stated0.08
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactionalNeutral / not counted
Data table
Hindutva-alignedOpposedTransactionalNeutral / not countedTotal
US033600336
GB079.301.1780.5
CH043.00043.0
CA019.80019.8
NL08.62008.62
Not stated00.08000.08

Measure 6. Pakistan: Security: Lowy military and J&K exchange ratio

Reading 65.6%

g_pak_series.csv

Figure 41.17. Each counted row: the 15 highest of 18 (score /100)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Lowy API 2025: India Diplomatic influence70.8
Lowy API 2025: India Resilience55.5
Lowy API 2025: India Future resources55.1
Lowy API 2025: India Military capability48
Lowy API 2025: India Cultural influence41.5
Lowy API 2025: India overall40
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan Diplomatic influence32.8
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan Resilience29.1
Lowy API 2025: India Economic capability27.1
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan Military capability23.6
Lowy API 2025: India Economic relationships19.7
Lowy API 2025: India Defence networks16.4
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan overall14.5
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan Defence networks13.8
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan Future resources12.2
0100
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
score /100Side
Lowy API 2025: India Diplomatic influence70.8Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: India Resilience55.5Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: India Future resources55.1Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: India Military capability48Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: India Cultural influence41.5Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: India overall40Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan Diplomatic influence32.8Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan Resilience29.1Opposed
Lowy API 2025: India Economic capability27.1Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan Military capability23.6Opposed
Lowy API 2025: India Economic relationships19.7Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: India Defence networks16.4Hindutva-aligned
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan overall14.5Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan Defence networks13.8Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Pakistan Future resources12.2Opposed
Figure 41.18. The 5 biggest of 5 (persons)
Pulwama attack 14 Feb 2019: CRPF personnel killed40
Pahalgam attack, 22 Apr 2025: civilians killed26
Pakistani shelling and strikes May 2025: Indian civilians killed21
Uri attack 18 Sep 2016: soldiers killed19
Pakistani shelling and strikes May 2025: Indian military/paramilitary killed8
Data table
personsSide
Pulwama attack 14 Feb 2019: CRPF personnel killed40Opposed
Pahalgam attack, 22 Apr 2025: civilians killed26Opposed
Pakistani shelling and strikes May 2025: Indian civilians killed21Opposed
Uri attack 18 Sep 2016: soldiers killed19Opposed
Pakistani shelling and strikes May 2025: Indian military/paramilitary killed8Opposed
Figure 41.19. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (event)
Hindutva-aligned 0 event · 0.0%Opposed 1 event · 50.0%Transactional 0 event · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 1 event · 50.0%
Data table
eventShare
Hindutva-aligned00.0%
Opposed150.0%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted150.0%
Figure 41.20. The 2 biggest of 2 (event)
Ceasefire 10 May 2025 17:00 IST1
Chinese J-10C fighters and PL-15 missiles used by Pakistan, May 20251
OpposedNeutral / not counted
Data table
eventSide
Ceasefire 10 May 2025 17:00 IST1Neutral / not counted
Chinese J-10C fighters and PL-15 missiles used by Pakistan, May 20251Opposed
Figure 41.21. Each counted row (% of the pair)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Pakistan: Pakistan nuclear warheads vs India, Pakistan share48.6
Pakistan: Mecca-pact trio (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) GDP vs India, trio share47.1
Pakistan: Pakistan military capability vs India (Lowy 2025), Pakistan share33
0100%
Data table
% of the pairSide
Pakistan: Pakistan nuclear warheads vs India, Pakistan share48.6Opposed
Pakistan: Mecca-pact trio (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) GDP vs India, trio share47.1Opposed
Pakistan: Pakistan military capability vs India (Lowy 2025), Pakistan share33Opposed
Figure 41.22. Over time: Pakistan (Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB) · CFVs
02,0004,00020172018201920202021202220232024Pakistan: Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB 2017: 971CFVsPakistan: Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB 2018: 2,140CFVsPakistan: Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB 2019: 3,479CFVsPakistan: Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB 2020: 5,133CFVsPakistan: Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB 2021: 664CFVsPakistan: Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB 2022: 1CFVsPakistan: Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB 2023: 0CFVsPakistan: Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB 2024: 2CFVs2
Data table
Pakistan: Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB
2017971
20182,140
20193,479
20205,133
2021664
20221
20230
20242
Figure 41.23. Over time: Pakistan (J&K encounters) · encounters
0501001502018201920202021202220232024Pakistan: J&K encounters (MHA) 2018: 189encountersPakistan: J&K encounters (MHA) 2019: 102encountersPakistan: J&K encounters (MHA) 2020: 118encountersPakistan: J&K encounters (MHA) 2021: 100encountersPakistan: J&K encounters (MHA) 2022: 117encountersPakistan: J&K encounters (MHA) 2023: 44encountersPakistan: J&K encounters (MHA) 2024: 24encounters24
Data table
Pakistan: J&K encounters (MHA)
2018189
2019102
2020118
2021100
2022117
202344
202424
Figure 41.24. Over time: Pakistan (Security forces killed in J&K, Civilians killed in J&K, All fatalities in J&K and 1 more) · persons
02004002014201620182020202220242026Pakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA) 2018: 91personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA) 2019: 80personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA) 2020: 63personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA) 2021: 42personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA) 2022: 32personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA) 2023: 20personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA) 2024: 14personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2014: 28personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2015: 19personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2016: 14personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2017: 54personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2018: 86personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2019: 42personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2020: 33personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2021: 36personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2022: 30personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2023: 12personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2024: 31personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2025: 28personsPakistan: Civilians killed in J&K 2026: 2personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2014: 189personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2015: 175personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2016: 267personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2017: 357personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2018: 452personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2019: 283personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2020: 321personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2021: 274personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2022: 253personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2023: 134personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2024: 127personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2025: 92personsPakistan: All fatalities in J&K 2026: 28personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2014: 47personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2015: 41personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2016: 88personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2017: 83personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2018: 95personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2019: 78personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2020: 56personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2021: 45personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2022: 30personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2023: 33personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2024: 26personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2025: 17personsPakistan: Security forces killed in J&K 2026: 2personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2014: 114personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2015: 115personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2016: 165personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2017: 220personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2018: 271personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2019: 163personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2020: 232personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2021: 193personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2022: 193personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2023: 87personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2024: 69personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2025: 46personsPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K 2026: 23persons28231422
Pakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA)Pakistan: Civilians killed in J&KPakistan: All fatalities in J&KPakistan: Security forces killed in J&KPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K
Data table
Pakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA)Pakistan: Civilians killed in J&KPakistan: All fatalities in J&KPakistan: Security forces killed in J&KPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K
20142818947114
20151917541115
20161426788165
20175435783220
2018918645295271
2019804228378163
2020633332156232
2021423627445193
2022323025330193
202320121343387
202414311272669
202528921746
2026228223
Figure 41.25. Over time: Pakistan (Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K, Major terror incidents in J&K) · incidents
01002002014201620182020202220242026Pakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA) 2018: 228incidentsPakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA) 2019: 153incidentsPakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA) 2020: 126incidentsPakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA) 2021: 129incidentsPakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA) 2022: 125incidentsPakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA) 2023: 41incidentsPakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA) 2024: 11incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2014: 91incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2015: 86incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2016: 112incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2017: 163incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2018: 206incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2019: 135incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2020: 140incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2021: 153incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2022: 151incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2023: 72incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2024: 61incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2025: 35incidentsPakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K 2026: 19incidents1911
Pakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA)Pakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K
Data table
Pakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA)Pakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K
201491
201586
2016112
2017163
2018228206
2019153135
2020126140
2021129153
2022125151
20234172
20241161
202535
202619

Measure 7. Pakistan: Economic (Lowy)

Reading 87.1%

Figure 41.26. Each counted row (0-10)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Pakistan: CHANNEL SCORE trade0.15
Data table
0-10Side
Pakistan: CHANNEL SCORE trade0.15Opposed
Figure 41.27. Over time: Pakistan (Pakistan’s share of India’s exports) · % of India total exports
02.557.5102014201620182020202220242026Pakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2014: 0.72% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2015: 0.6% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2016: 0.83% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2017: 0.66% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2018: 0.63% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2019: 0.63% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2020: 0.26% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2021: 0.11% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2022: 0.12% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2023: 0.14% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2024: 0.27% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2025: 0.13% of India total exportsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports 2026: 0.06% of India total exports0.06
Data table
Pakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports
20140.72
20150.6
20160.83
20170.66
20180.63
20190.63
20200.26
20210.11
20220.12
20230.14
20240.27
20250.13
20260.06
Figure 41.28. Over time: Pakistan (India’s exports to Pakistan, India’s imports from Pakistan, Trade balance with Pakistan) · $ billion
02.557.5102014201620182020202220242026Pakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2014: 2.27$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2015: 1.86$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2016: 2.17$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2017: 1.82$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2018: 1.92$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2019: 2.07$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2020: 0.82$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2021: 0.33$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2022: 0.51$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2023: 0.63$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2024: 1.19$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2025: 0.56$ billionPakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan 2026: 0.26$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2014: 0.43$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2015: 0.5$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2016: 0.44$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2017: 0.45$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2018: 0.49$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2019: 0.5$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2020: 0.01$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2021: 0$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2022: 0$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2023: 0.02$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2024: 0$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2025: 0$ billionPakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan 2026: 0$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2014: 1.85$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2015: 1.36$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2016: 1.73$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2017: 1.37$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2018: 1.44$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2019: 1.57$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2020: 0.8$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2021: 0.32$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2022: 0.51$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2023: 0.61$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2024: 1.19$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2025: 0.56$ billionPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan 2026: 0.26$ billion0.260.260
Pakistan: India’s exports to PakistanPakistan: India’s imports from PakistanPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan
Data table
Pakistan: India’s exports to PakistanPakistan: India’s imports from PakistanPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan
20142.270.431.85
20151.860.51.36
20162.170.441.73
20171.820.451.37
20181.920.491.44
20192.070.51.57
20200.820.010.8
20210.3300.32
20220.5100.51
20230.630.020.61
20241.1901.19
20250.5600.56
20260.2600.26
Figure 41.29. Over time: Pakistan (Pakistan’s share of India’s imports) · % of India total imports
02.557.5102014201620182020202220242026Pakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2014: 0.09% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2015: 0.11% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2016: 0.12% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2017: 0.12% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2018: 0.1% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2019: 0.1% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2020: 0% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2021: 0% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2022: 0% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2023: 0% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2024: 0% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2025: 0% of India total importsPakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports 2026: 0% of India total imports0
Data table
Pakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s imports
20140.09
20150.11
20160.12
20170.12
20180.1
20190.1
20200
20210
20220
20230
20240
20250
20260

Measure 8. Pakistan: Narrative (Lowy diplomatic, cultural)

Reading 78.8%

Figure 41.30. Each counted row (%)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
China share of Pakistan arms imports, 2021-25 (SIPRI)80
Pakistan share of Turkish arms exports, 2021-25 (SIPRI)16
0100%
Data table
%Side
China share of Pakistan arms imports, 2021-25 (SIPRI)80Opposed
Pakistan share of Turkish arms exports, 2021-25 (SIPRI)16Opposed
Figure 41.31. Each counted row (0-10)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Pakistan: CHANNEL SCORE diplomatic2.58
Data table
0-10Side
Pakistan: CHANNEL SCORE diplomatic2.58Opposed

Measure 9. Pakistan: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)

Reading 14.0%

Hindutva's share of the followers that come from Pakistan and Bangladesh: 17.5% of the opposing accounts' followers (owner's estimate, 15-20%, from a social-media analysis), 2% of the Hindutva accounts' (owner's default). Live from the follower rows. Grade E: an estimate, to be replaced by measured audience-country data. Indirect: Pakistan and Bangladesh use India's own opposing voices (opposition leaders, Left creators) to push their agenda. The analysis (Instagram reel) ↗

Figure 41.32. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (million followers)
Hindutva-aligned 777 million followers · 57.5%Opposed 545 million followers · 40.3%Transactional 0 million followers · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 30.6 million followers · 2.3%
Data table
million followersShare
Hindutva-aligned77757.5%
Opposed54540.3%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted30.62.3%
Figure 41.33. The 15 biggest of 413 (million followers)
Narendra Modi (@narendramodi)107
Narendra Modi (Instagram @narendramodi)107
Bhajan Marg (Premanand Maharaj) (Instagram @bhajanmarg_official)41.7
Amit Shah (@amitshah)36.7
Amit Shah (Instagram @amitshahofficial)34.3
Yogi Adityanath (@myogiadityanath)32.7
Rahul Gandhi (@rahulgandhi)28.7
Arvind Kejriwal (@arvindkejriwal)26.5
Cockroach Janta Party (Instagram @cockroachjantaparty)24.8
Rajnath Singh (@rajnathsingh)24.1
BJP (@bjp4india)23.0
Akhilesh Yadav (@yadavakhilesh)20.4
Dhruv Rathee (Instagram @dhruvrathee)20.2
Vijay (Instagram @actorvijay)19.1
Yogi Adityanath (Instagram @myogi_adityanath)18.4
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
million followersSide
Narendra Modi (@narendramodi)107Hindutva-aligned
Narendra Modi (Instagram @narendramodi)107Hindutva-aligned
Bhajan Marg (Premanand Maharaj) (Instagram @bhajanmarg_official)41.7Hindutva-aligned
Amit Shah (@amitshah)36.7Hindutva-aligned
Amit Shah (Instagram @amitshahofficial)34.3Hindutva-aligned
Yogi Adityanath (@myogiadityanath)32.7Hindutva-aligned
Rahul Gandhi (@rahulgandhi)28.7Opposed
Arvind Kejriwal (@arvindkejriwal)26.5Opposed
Cockroach Janta Party (Instagram @cockroachjantaparty)24.8Opposed
Rajnath Singh (@rajnathsingh)24.1Hindutva-aligned
BJP (@bjp4india)23.0Hindutva-aligned
Akhilesh Yadav (@yadavakhilesh)20.4Opposed
Dhruv Rathee (Instagram @dhruvrathee)20.2Opposed
Vijay (Instagram @actorvijay)19.1Opposed
Yogi Adityanath (Instagram @myogi_adityanath)18.4Hindutva-aligned

Measure 10. Bangladesh: Comprehensive power (Lowy 2025: India 40.0 vs Bangladesh 9.0)

Reading 81.6%

Lowy Asia Power Index 2025

Figure 41.34. Each counted row (score /100)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Diplomatic influence26.5
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Resilience25.3
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh overall9
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Cultural influence7.1
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Future resources7
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Defence networks5.8
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Military capability5.2
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Economic capability3.2
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Economic relationships2.2
0100
Data table
score /100Side
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Diplomatic influence26.5Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Resilience25.3Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh overall9Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Cultural influence7.1Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Future resources7Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Defence networks5.8Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Military capability5.2Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Economic capability3.2Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Economic relationships2.2Opposed

Measure 11. Bangladesh: Contest of documented acts since Aug 2024

Reading 16.7%

By government: Yunus interim government (Aug 2024–Feb 2026) 2 Indian counter-moves (transshipment withdrawn, land-port curbs) vs 7 opposing acts (attacks on Hindus, 76 incidents in 26 Nov 2024–25 Jan 2025 per MEA; Chinmoy Das arrest; Hasina extradition note; Yunus “landlocked” remark; Hasina death sentence …); BNP government (PM Tarique Rahman, since 17 Feb 2026) 0 vs 3 (PM visit refused until Hasina is extradited, push-in clashes, Farakka renewal pressure). Total 2 vs 10 (g_others_units.csv; owner, round 2 D20)

Figure 41.35. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (US$ million)
Hindutva-aligned 18,287 US$ million · 41.4%Opposed 25,858 US$ million · 58.6%Transactional 0 US$ million · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 0 US$ million · 0.0%
Data table
US$ millionShare
Hindutva-aligned18,28741.4%
Opposed25,85858.6%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted00.0%
Figure 41.36. The 6 biggest of 6 (US$ million)
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise exports to BANGLADESH PR11,485
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise exports to BANGLADESH PR10,587
Others-Bangladesh: India trade balance with BANGLADESH PR (exports minus imports)9,480
Others-Bangladesh: India trade balance with BANGLADESH PR (exports minus imports)8,807
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise imports from BANGLADESH PR2,005
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise imports from BANGLADESH PR1,780
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
US$ millionSide
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise exports to BANGLADESH PR11,485Opposed
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise exports to BANGLADESH PR10,587Opposed
Others-Bangladesh: India trade balance with BANGLADESH PR (exports minus imports)9,480Hindutva-aligned
Others-Bangladesh: India trade balance with BANGLADESH PR (exports minus imports)8,807Hindutva-aligned
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise imports from BANGLADESH PR2,005Opposed
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise imports from BANGLADESH PR1,780Opposed
Figure 41.37. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (event (1 = occurred; date in notes))
Hindutva-aligned 2 event (1 = occurred; date in notes) · 50.0%Opposed 2 event (1 = occurred; date in notes) · 50.0%Transactional 0 event (1 = occurred; date in notes) · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 0 event (1 = occurred; date in notes) · 0.0%
Data table
event (1 = occurred; date in notes)Share
Hindutva-aligned250.0%
Opposed250.0%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted00.0%
Figure 41.38. The 4 biggest of 4 (event (1 = occurred; date in notes))
Others-Bangladesh: India bars Bangladesh RMG and other goods via land ports (RMG only via Kolkata & Nhava Sheva)1
Others-Bangladesh: Bangladesh halted yarn imports via its land ports1
Others-Bangladesh: India bars jute products HS 531090, 560890, 560790, 630510 from Bangladesh via any land port; only1
Others-Bangladesh: Restrictions still in force; Bangladesh sought removal at 16th JWG on Trade1
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
event (1 = occurred; date in notes)Side
Others-Bangladesh: India bars Bangladesh RMG and other goods via land ports (RMG only via Kolkata & Nhava Sheva)1Hindutva-aligned
Others-Bangladesh: Bangladesh halted yarn imports via its land ports1Opposed
Others-Bangladesh: India bars jute products HS 531090, 560890, 560790, 630510 from Bangladesh via any land port; only1Hindutva-aligned
Others-Bangladesh: Restrictions still in force; Bangladesh sought removal at 16th JWG on Trade1Opposed
Figure 41.39. The 2 biggest of 2 (USD mn)
Bangladesh: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 20260.1
Bangladesh: FDI equity inflow calendar 20250.02
Data table
USD mnSide
Bangladesh: Cumulative FDI equity inflow Apr 2000-Mar 20260.1Opposed
Bangladesh: FDI equity inflow calendar 20250.02Opposed
Figure 41.40. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (event (count))
Hindutva-aligned 2 event (count) · 14.3%Opposed 10 event (count) · 71.4%Transactional 0 event (count) · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 2 event (count) · 14.3%
Data table
event (count)Share
Hindutva-aligned214.3%
Opposed1071.4%
Transactional00.0%
Neutral / not counted214.3%
Figure 41.41. The 14 biggest of 14 (event (count))
Bangladesh 2024-08-05: PM Sheikh Hasina resigns and flees to India; remains in India as of Oct 20261
Bangladesh 2024-08-04/2024-08-20: Minority council (BHBCUC) reports 2,010 incidents of attacks on minorities in 16 days1
Bangladesh 2024-11-25: ISKCON-linked monk Chinmoy Krishna Das arrested (sedition); MEA expressed "deep concern" (26 Nov1
Bangladesh 2024-12-23: Bangladesh sends note verbale to India seeking Hasina's extradition1
Bangladesh 2024-11-26/2025-01-25: MoS External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh tells Lok Sabha: 76 incidents of anti-Hindu1
Bangladesh 2025-03-26/2025-03-29: CA Muhammad Yunus in China calls India's NE "landlocked" and Bangladesh "guardian of1
Bangladesh 2025-04-04: Modi-Yunus meeting on BIMSTEC sidelines, Bangkok (Hasina extradition, minorities, border1
Bangladesh 2025-04-08: India withdraws transshipment facility for Bangladesh export cargo via Indian land customs1
Bangladesh 2025-05-17: India restricts imports of Bangladeshi RMG, processed food etc. via NE land ports (RMG only via1
Bangladesh 2025-11-17: ICT-1 sentences Sheikh Hasina to death in absentia for crimes against humanity (July 20241
Bangladesh 2026-02-12: Bangladesh general election: BNP & allies 212 seats (two-thirds); Jamaat-led bloc 77; Tarique1
Bangladesh 2026-08-16: Dhaka says PM Tarique Rahman will not visit India until Hasina is extradited; proposed 20-25 Aug1
Bangladesh 2026-10: BSF "push-in" attempts blocked by BGB (Panchagarh 7 Oct; Lalmonirhat 12 people, 18 Oct)1
Bangladesh 2026-12-12 (expiry): Ganges (Farakka) Water Sharing Treaty 1996 expires 12 Dec 2026; Dhaka pressing for1
Hindutva-alignedOpposedNeutral / not counted
Data table
event (count)Side
Bangladesh 2024-08-05: PM Sheikh Hasina resigns and flees to India; remains in India as of Oct 20261Neutral / not counted
Bangladesh 2024-08-04/2024-08-20: Minority council (BHBCUC) reports 2,010 incidents of attacks on minorities in 16 days1Opposed
Bangladesh 2024-11-25: ISKCON-linked monk Chinmoy Krishna Das arrested (sedition); MEA expressed "deep concern" (26 Nov1Opposed
Bangladesh 2024-12-23: Bangladesh sends note verbale to India seeking Hasina's extradition1Opposed
Bangladesh 2024-11-26/2025-01-25: MoS External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh tells Lok Sabha: 76 incidents of anti-Hindu1Opposed
Bangladesh 2025-03-26/2025-03-29: CA Muhammad Yunus in China calls India's NE "landlocked" and Bangladesh "guardian of1Opposed
Bangladesh 2025-04-04: Modi-Yunus meeting on BIMSTEC sidelines, Bangkok (Hasina extradition, minorities, border1Opposed
Bangladesh 2025-04-08: India withdraws transshipment facility for Bangladesh export cargo via Indian land customs1Hindutva-aligned
Bangladesh 2025-05-17: India restricts imports of Bangladeshi RMG, processed food etc. via NE land ports (RMG only via1Hindutva-aligned
Bangladesh 2025-11-17: ICT-1 sentences Sheikh Hasina to death in absentia for crimes against humanity (July 20241Opposed
Bangladesh 2026-02-12: Bangladesh general election: BNP & allies 212 seats (two-thirds); Jamaat-led bloc 77; Tarique1Neutral / not counted
Bangladesh 2026-08-16: Dhaka says PM Tarique Rahman will not visit India until Hasina is extradited; proposed 20-25 Aug1Opposed
Bangladesh 2026-10: BSF "push-in" attempts blocked by BGB (Panchagarh 7 Oct; Lalmonirhat 12 people, 18 Oct)1Opposed
Bangladesh 2026-12-12 (expiry): Ganges (Farakka) Water Sharing Treaty 1996 expires 12 Dec 2026; Dhaka pressing for1Opposed

Measure 12. Bangladesh: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)

Reading 14.0%

Hindutva's share of the followers that come from Pakistan and Bangladesh: 17.5% of the opposing accounts' followers (owner's estimate, 15-20%, from a social-media analysis), 2% of the Hindutva accounts' (owner's default). Live from the follower rows. Grade E: an estimate, to be replaced by measured audience-country data. Indirect: Pakistan and Bangladesh use India's own opposing voices (opposition leaders, Left creators) to push their agenda. The analysis (Instagram reel) ↗

Measure 13. Context: shown for reference, not part of the reading

Figure 41.42. Over time: Hostile acts recorded, Pakistan: Hostile acts recorded · events
02.557.510201620182020202220242026Hostile acts recorded 2019: 2eventsHostile acts recorded 2022: 1eventsHostile acts recorded 2025: 2eventsHostile acts recorded 2026: 2eventsPakistan: Hostile acts recorded 2016: 1eventsPakistan: Hostile acts recorded 2019: 2eventsPakistan: Hostile acts recorded 2025: 5eventsPakistan: Hostile acts recorded 2026: 1events21
Hostile acts recordedPakistan: Hostile acts recorded
Data table
Hostile acts recordedPakistan: Hostile acts recorded
20161
201922
20221
202525
202621
Figure 41.43. Over time: OIC statements on India · OIC statements/resolutions on India recorded
02.557.51020182020202220242026OIC statements on India 2017: 1OIC statements/resolutions on India recordedOIC statements on India 2019: 2OIC statements/resolutions on India recordedOIC statements on India 2022: 1OIC statements/resolutions on India recordedOIC statements on India 2025: 1OIC statements/resolutions on India recordedOIC statements on India 2026: 2OIC statements/resolutions on India recorded2
Data table
OIC statements on India
20171
20192
20221
20251
20262
Figure 41.44. Over time: Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports, UAE’s share of India’s exports · % of India total exports
051015202014201620182020202220242026Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2014: 3.89% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2015: 3.6% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2016: 2.43% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2017: 1.85% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2018: 1.78% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2019: 1.68% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2020: 1.99% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2021: 2.01% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2022: 2.08% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2023: 2.38% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2024: 2.64% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2025: 2.69% of India total exportsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports 2026: 2.33% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2014: 9.71% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2015: 10.6% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2016: 11.6% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2017: 11.3% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2018: 9.27% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2019: 9.13% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2020: 9.21% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2021: 5.72% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2022: 6.65% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2023: 7.01% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2024: 8.15% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2025: 8.37% of India total exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports 2026: 8.46% of India total exports8.462.33
Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports
Data table
Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports
20143.899.71
20153.610.6
20162.4311.6
20171.8511.3
20181.789.27
20191.689.13
20201.999.21
20212.015.72
20222.086.65
20232.387.01
20242.648.15
20252.698.37
20262.338.46
Figure 41.45. Over time: India’s exports to Saudi Arabia, India’s imports from Saudi Arabia, Trade balance with Saudi Arabia and 3 more · $ billion
0502014201620182020202220242026India’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2014: 12.2$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2015: 11.2$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2016: 6.38$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2017: 5.11$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2018: 5.41$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2019: 5.56$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2020: 6.24$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2021: 5.86$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2022: 8.76$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2023: 10.7$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2024: 11.6$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2025: 11.8$ billionIndia’s exports to Saudi Arabia 2026: 10.3$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2014: 36.4$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2015: 28.1$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2016: 20.3$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2017: 20.0$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2018: 22.1$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2019: 28.5$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2020: 26.9$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2021: 16.2$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2022: 34.1$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2023: 42.0$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2024: 31.4$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2025: 30.1$ billionIndia’s imports from Saudi Arabia 2026: 30.8$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2014: -24.2$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2015: -16.9$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2016: -13.9$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2017: -14.9$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2018: -16.7$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2019: -22.9$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2020: -20.6$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2021: -10.3$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2022: -25.3$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2023: -31.3$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2024: -19.9$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2025: -18.4$ billionTrade balance with Saudi Arabia 2026: -20.5$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2014: 30.5$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2015: 33.0$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2016: 30.3$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2017: 31.2$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2018: 28.1$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2019: 30.1$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2020: 28.9$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2021: 16.7$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2022: 28.0$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2023: 31.6$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2024: 35.6$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2025: 36.6$ billionIndia’s exports to UAE 2026: 37.4$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2014: 29.0$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2015: 26.1$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2016: 19.4$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2017: 21.5$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2018: 21.7$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2019: 29.8$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2020: 30.3$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2021: 26.6$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2022: 44.8$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2023: 53.2$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2024: 46.8$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2025: 63.4$ billionIndia’s imports from UAE 2026: 63.9$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2014: 1.5$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2015: 6.89$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2016: 10.9$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2017: 9.67$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2018: 6.41$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2019: 0.34$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2020: -1.4$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2021: -9.94$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2022: -16.8$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2023: -21.6$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2024: -11.2$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2025: -26.8$ billionTrade balance with UAE 2026: -26.5$ billion63.937.430.810.3-20.5-26.5
India’s exports to Saudi ArabiaIndia’s imports from Saudi ArabiaTrade balance with Saudi ArabiaIndia’s exports to UAEIndia’s imports from UAETrade balance with UAE
Data table
India’s exports to Saudi ArabiaIndia’s imports from Saudi ArabiaTrade balance with Saudi ArabiaIndia’s exports to UAEIndia’s imports from UAETrade balance with UAE
201412.236.4-24.230.529.01.5
201511.228.1-16.933.026.16.89
20166.3820.3-13.930.319.410.9
20175.1120.0-14.931.221.59.67
20185.4122.1-16.728.121.76.41
20195.5628.5-22.930.129.80.34
20206.2426.9-20.628.930.3-1.4
20215.8616.2-10.316.726.6-9.94
20228.7634.1-25.328.044.8-16.8
202310.742.0-31.331.653.2-21.6
202411.631.4-19.935.646.8-11.2
202511.830.1-18.436.663.4-26.8
202610.330.8-20.537.463.9-26.5
Figure 41.46. Over time: Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports, UAE’s share of India’s imports · % of India total imports
02.557.5102014201620182020202220242026Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2014: 8.09% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2015: 6.27% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2016: 5.33% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2017: 5.2% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2018: 4.74% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2019: 5.54% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2020: 5.66% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2021: 4.1% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2022: 5.56% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2023: 5.87% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2024: 4.66% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2025: 4.18% of India total importsSaudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports 2026: 3.97% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2014: 6.45% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2015: 5.83% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2016: 5.1% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2017: 5.6% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2018: 4.67% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2019: 5.79% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2020: 6.37% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2021: 6.75% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2022: 7.31% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2023: 7.43% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2024: 6.94% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2025: 8.79% of India total importsUAE’s share of India’s imports 2026: 8.24% of India total imports8.243.97
Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s importsUAE’s share of India’s imports
Data table
Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s importsUAE’s share of India’s imports
20148.096.45
20156.275.83
20165.335.1
20175.25.6
20184.744.67
20195.545.79
20205.666.37
20214.16.75
20225.567.31
20235.877.43
20244.666.94
20254.188.79
20263.978.24
Figure 41.47. Planning threat of each global player (reach × hostility, out of 100)Each player’s weight out of 5 = threat ÷ 20, unless set by hand.
Western media, academia, philanthropy and rights bodies84.6
USA72
China72
Big Tech53.1
Global Islam47.1
India Abroad: Diaspora & Soft Power40
Others16.5
Global Christianity9
Data table
ValueSide
Western media, academia, philanthropy and rights bodies84.6Other
USA72Other
China72Other
Big Tech53.1Other
Global Islam47.1Opposed
India Abroad: Diaspora & Soft Power40Other
Others16.5Other
Global Christianity9Other
Figure 41.48. Islamist networks & OIC: Security now: Islamist terror at home 2024-26 (J&K and the hinterland)
Reading52.2%132 : 121
Terrorists killedSecurity forces and civilians killed
Data table
Terrorists killedSecurity forces and civilians killedTerrorists killed share
Reading13212152.2%

41.6Evidence base

The arena rests on 308 coded units, 30 money flows and 302 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 39 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 264 opposed and 35 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 199 grade A, 37 grade B, 73 grade C, 11 grade D, 2 grade E.

The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).

Notes

  1. Terrorists killed 1753 vs security forces and civilians 950 (SATP). ↩
  2. J&K 132 vs 106 (SATP, Pahalgam included) plus the Red Fort car bomb, 10 Nov 2025 (15 killed). ↩
  3. g_pak_series.csv. ↩
  4. Hindutva's share of the followers that come from Pakistan and Bangladesh: 17.5% of the opposing accounts' followers (owner's estimate, 15-20%, from a social-media analysis), 2% of the Hindutva accounts' (owner's default). Live from the follower rows. Grade E: an estimate, to be replaced by measured audience-country data. Indirect: Pakistan and Bangladesh use India's own opposing voices (opposition leaders, Left creators) to push their agenda.. ↩
  5. Lowy Asia Power Index 2025. ↩
  6. By government: Yunus interim government (Aug 2024–Feb 2026) 2 Indian counter-moves (transshipment withdrawn, land-port curbs) vs 7 opposing acts (attacks on Hindus, 76 incidents in 26 Nov 2024–25 Jan 2025 per MEA; Chinmoy Das arrest; Hasina extradition note; Yunus “landlocked” remark; Hasina death sentence …); BNP government (PM Tarique Rahman, since 17 Feb 2026) 0 vs 3 (PM visit refused until Hasina is extradited, push-in clashes, Farakka renewal pressure). Total 2 vs 10 (g_others_units.csv; owner, round 2 D20). ↩