Islamist networks and the OIC bloc; Pakistan (its state, army and armed groups) and Bangladesh; and domestic networks they fund or inspire, such as the banned PFI.
Principal evidence: Mean of two contests. Abroad: India’s counter-leverage 6/10 (Operation Sindoor, NIA, PFI ban, FATF, Gulf partners) vs the networks’ external reach (65%). At home: the Hindutva core (18.8% of voters) vs the consolidated Muslim political bloc (12.8% of voters: 14.2% of Indians, ~90% voting against the NDA in 2024; Muslims are 20%+ of the population in 96 of 543 Lok Sabha seats) = 60%.
41.2Significance
Oil and gas, Gulf remittances, terror and war on the western front, the eastern border and infiltration, Kashmir and OIC diplomacy, and street mobilisation at home.
41.3Indicators and weights
Table 41.1 lists the 10 indicators of the arena, the weight of each within the arena, and each indicator’s reading (the Hindutva-aligned share, from 0 to 100).
Table 41.1. Indicators of arena 8.5
Indicator
Weight
Reading
Islamist networks & OIC: At home: Hindutva core vs Muslim political bloc (% of voters)
0.14
59.5
Islamist networks & OIC: Security: J&K exchange ratio 2014-231
0.06
64.8
Islamist networks & OIC: Security now: Islamist terror at home 2024-26 (J&K and the hinterland)2
0.06
52.2
Pakistan: Security: Lowy military and J&K exchange ratio3
0.25
65.6
Pakistan: Economic (Lowy)
0.06
87.1
Pakistan: Narrative (Lowy diplomatic, cultural)
0.11
78.8
Pakistan: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)4
0.04
14.0
Bangladesh: Comprehensive power (Lowy 2025: India 40.0 vs Bangladesh 9.0)5
0.10
81.6
Bangladesh: Contest of documented acts since Aug 20246
0.07
16.7
Bangladesh: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)4
0.01
14.0
Arena reading
1.00
61.5
41.4Reading
The arena reads 61.5, 11.5 points above parity, and is classified as aligned majority (a reading of 60 or above). With a weight of 2.35 of a total 107.7, it contributes 1.34 points to the composite reading of 45.7.
The indicators diverge: the highest reading is for Pakistan: Economic (Lowy) (87.1), the lowest for Pakistan: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together) (14.0).
Figure 41.1. Readings of arena 8.5 by indicator
050100
Islamist networks & OIC: At home: Hindutva core vs Muslim political bloc (% of voters)59.5
Islamist networks & OIC: Security: J&K exchange ratio 2014-2364.8
Islamist networks & OIC: Security now: Islamist terror at home 2024-26 (J&K and the hinterland)52.2
Pakistan: Security: Lowy military and J&K exchange ratio65.6
Pakistan: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)14.0
Bangladesh: Comprehensive power (Lowy 2025: India 40.0 vs Bangladesh 9.0)81.6
Bangladesh: Contest of documented acts since Aug 202416.7
Bangladesh: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)14.0
Arena reading61.5
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Each bar divides the indicator between Hindutva-aligned (left) and opposed (right) holdings. The vertical rule marks parity.
41.5Measures and exhibits
The exhibits below are the Atlas’s own views of the data behind each measure: shares by side, the largest units, breakdowns by source, recipient and country, money-flow diagrams and time series. Full row-level ledgers are in the data file (Appendix D).
Measure 1. Islamist networks & OIC: At home: Hindutva core vs Muslim political bloc (% of voters)
Reading 59.5%
Hindutva core 19 vs Muslim bloc 13
Figure 41.2. Islamist networks & OIC: At home: Hindutva core vs Muslim political bloc (% of voters)
Reading59.5%18.8 : 12.8
Hindutva coreMuslim bloc
Data table
Hindutva core
Muslim bloc
Hindutva core share
Reading
18.8
12.8
59.5%
Figure 41.3. The 6 biggest of 6 (seats)
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >20%101
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >20% / >30%80
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share 20-39.9%67
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim share of electorate >30%50
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >=40%29
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >50% (majority)15
Data table
seats
Side
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >20%
101
Opposed
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >20% / >30%
80
Opposed
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share 20-39.9%
67
Opposed
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim share of electorate >30%
50
Opposed
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >=40%
29
Opposed
Muslim political bloc: Lok Sabha PCs by Muslim population share >50% (majority)
15
Opposed
Figure 41.4. Each counted row (% of Muslim voters)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Muslim political bloc: Muslim vote to INDIA bloc 202465
0100%
Data table
% of Muslim voters
Side
Muslim political bloc: Muslim vote to INDIA bloc 2024
Chinese J-10C fighters and PL-15 missiles used by Pakistan, May 20251
OpposedNeutral / not counted
Data table
event
Side
Ceasefire 10 May 2025 17:00 IST
1
Neutral / not counted
Chinese J-10C fighters and PL-15 missiles used by Pakistan, May 2025
1
Opposed
Figure 41.21. Each counted row (% of the pair)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Pakistan: Pakistan nuclear warheads vs India, Pakistan share48.6
Pakistan: Mecca-pact trio (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) GDP vs India, trio share47.1
Pakistan: Pakistan military capability vs India (Lowy 2025), Pakistan share33
0100%
Data table
% of the pair
Side
Pakistan: Pakistan nuclear warheads vs India, Pakistan share
48.6
Opposed
Pakistan: Mecca-pact trio (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) GDP vs India, trio share
47.1
Opposed
Pakistan: Pakistan military capability vs India (Lowy 2025), Pakistan share
33
Opposed
Figure 41.22. Over time: Pakistan (Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB) · CFVsData table
Pakistan: Ceasefire violations on the LoC and IB
2017
971
2018
2,140
2019
3,479
2020
5,133
2021
664
2022
1
2023
0
2024
2
Figure 41.23. Over time: Pakistan (J&K encounters) · encountersData table
Pakistan: J&K encounters (MHA)
2018
189
2019
102
2020
118
2021
100
2022
117
2023
44
2024
24
Figure 41.24. Over time: Pakistan (Security forces killed in J&K, Civilians killed in J&K, All fatalities in J&K and 1 more) · persons
Pakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA)Pakistan: Civilians killed in J&KPakistan: All fatalities in J&KPakistan: Security forces killed in J&KPakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K
Data table
Pakistan: Security forces killed in J&K (MHA)
Pakistan: Civilians killed in J&K
Pakistan: All fatalities in J&K
Pakistan: Security forces killed in J&K
Pakistan: Terrorists killed in J&K
2014
28
189
47
114
2015
19
175
41
115
2016
14
267
88
165
2017
54
357
83
220
2018
91
86
452
95
271
2019
80
42
283
78
163
2020
63
33
321
56
232
2021
42
36
274
45
193
2022
32
30
253
30
193
2023
20
12
134
33
87
2024
14
31
127
26
69
2025
28
92
17
46
2026
2
28
2
23
Figure 41.25. Over time: Pakistan (Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K, Major terror incidents in J&K) · incidents
Pakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA)Pakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K
Data table
Pakistan: Terrorist-initiated incidents in J&K (MHA)
Pakistan: Major terror incidents in J&K
2014
91
2015
86
2016
112
2017
163
2018
228
206
2019
153
135
2020
126
140
2021
129
153
2022
125
151
2023
41
72
2024
11
61
2025
35
2026
19
Measure 7. Pakistan: Economic (Lowy)
Reading 87.1%
Figure 41.26. Each counted row (0-10)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Pakistan: CHANNEL SCORE trade0.15
Data table
0-10
Side
Pakistan: CHANNEL SCORE trade
0.15
Opposed
Figure 41.27. Over time: Pakistan (Pakistan’s share of India’s exports) · % of India total exportsData table
Pakistan: Pakistan’s share of India’s exports
2014
0.72
2015
0.6
2016
0.83
2017
0.66
2018
0.63
2019
0.63
2020
0.26
2021
0.11
2022
0.12
2023
0.14
2024
0.27
2025
0.13
2026
0.06
Figure 41.28. Over time: Pakistan (India’s exports to Pakistan, India’s imports from Pakistan, Trade balance with Pakistan) · $ billion
Pakistan: India’s exports to PakistanPakistan: India’s imports from PakistanPakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan
Data table
Pakistan: India’s exports to Pakistan
Pakistan: India’s imports from Pakistan
Pakistan: Trade balance with Pakistan
2014
2.27
0.43
1.85
2015
1.86
0.5
1.36
2016
2.17
0.44
1.73
2017
1.82
0.45
1.37
2018
1.92
0.49
1.44
2019
2.07
0.5
1.57
2020
0.82
0.01
0.8
2021
0.33
0
0.32
2022
0.51
0
0.51
2023
0.63
0.02
0.61
2024
1.19
0
1.19
2025
0.56
0
0.56
2026
0.26
0
0.26
Figure 41.29. Over time: Pakistan (Pakistan’s share of India’s imports) · % of India total importsData table
Figure 41.30. Each counted row (%)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
China share of Pakistan arms imports, 2021-25 (SIPRI)80
Pakistan share of Turkish arms exports, 2021-25 (SIPRI)16
0100%
Data table
%
Side
China share of Pakistan arms imports, 2021-25 (SIPRI)
80
Opposed
Pakistan share of Turkish arms exports, 2021-25 (SIPRI)
16
Opposed
Figure 41.31. Each counted row (0-10)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Pakistan: CHANNEL SCORE diplomatic2.58
Data table
0-10
Side
Pakistan: CHANNEL SCORE diplomatic
2.58
Opposed
Measure 9. Pakistan: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)
Reading 14.0%
Hindutva's share of the followers that come from Pakistan and Bangladesh: 17.5% of the opposing accounts' followers (owner's estimate, 15-20%, from a social-media analysis), 2% of the Hindutva accounts' (owner's default). Live from the follower rows. Grade E: an estimate, to be replaced by measured audience-country data. Indirect: Pakistan and Bangladesh use India's own opposing voices (opposition leaders, Left creators) to push their agenda. The analysis (Instagram reel) ↗
Figure 41.32. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (million followers)
Hindutva-aligned 777 million followers · 57.5%Opposed 545 million followers · 40.3%Transactional 0 million followers · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 30.6 million followers · 2.3%
Data table
million followers
Share
Hindutva-aligned
777
57.5%
Opposed
545
40.3%
Transactional
0
0.0%
Neutral / not counted
30.6
2.3%
Figure 41.33. The 15 biggest of 413 (million followers)
Cockroach Janta Party (Instagram @cockroachjantaparty)
24.8
Opposed
Rajnath Singh (@rajnathsingh)
24.1
Hindutva-aligned
BJP (@bjp4india)
23.0
Hindutva-aligned
Akhilesh Yadav (@yadavakhilesh)
20.4
Opposed
Dhruv Rathee (Instagram @dhruvrathee)
20.2
Opposed
Vijay (Instagram @actorvijay)
19.1
Opposed
Yogi Adityanath (Instagram @myogi_adityanath)
18.4
Hindutva-aligned
Measure 10. Bangladesh: Comprehensive power (Lowy 2025: India 40.0 vs Bangladesh 9.0)
Reading 81.6%
Lowy Asia Power Index 2025
Figure 41.34. Each counted row (score /100)Rates and shares are not added up: each row is its own reading.
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Diplomatic influence26.5
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Resilience25.3
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh overall9
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Cultural influence7.1
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Future resources7
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Defence networks5.8
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Military capability5.2
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Economic capability3.2
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Economic relationships2.2
0100
Data table
score /100
Side
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Diplomatic influence
26.5
Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Resilience
25.3
Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh overall
9
Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Cultural influence
7.1
Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Future resources
7
Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Defence networks
5.8
Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Military capability
5.2
Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Economic capability
3.2
Opposed
Lowy API 2025: Bangladesh Economic relationships
2.2
Opposed
Measure 11. Bangladesh: Contest of documented acts since Aug 2024
Reading 16.7%
By government: Yunus interim government (Aug 2024–Feb 2026) 2 Indian counter-moves (transshipment withdrawn, land-port curbs) vs 7 opposing acts (attacks on Hindus, 76 incidents in 26 Nov 2024–25 Jan 2025 per MEA; Chinmoy Das arrest; Hasina extradition note; Yunus “landlocked” remark; Hasina death sentence …); BNP government (PM Tarique Rahman, since 17 Feb 2026) 0 vs 3 (PM visit refused until Hasina is extradited, push-in clashes, Farakka renewal pressure). Total 2 vs 10 (g_others_units.csv; owner, round 2 D20)
Figure 41.35. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (US$ million)
Hindutva-aligned 18,287 US$ million · 41.4%Opposed 25,858 US$ million · 58.6%Transactional 0 US$ million · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 0 US$ million · 0.0%
Data table
US$ million
Share
Hindutva-aligned
18,287
41.4%
Opposed
25,858
58.6%
Transactional
0
0.0%
Neutral / not counted
0
0.0%
Figure 41.36. The 6 biggest of 6 (US$ million)
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise exports to BANGLADESH PR11,485
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise exports to BANGLADESH PR10,587
Others-Bangladesh: India trade balance with BANGLADESH PR (exports minus imports)9,480
Others-Bangladesh: India trade balance with BANGLADESH PR (exports minus imports)8,807
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise imports from BANGLADESH PR2,005
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise imports from BANGLADESH PR1,780
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
US$ million
Side
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise exports to BANGLADESH PR
11,485
Opposed
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise exports to BANGLADESH PR
10,587
Opposed
Others-Bangladesh: India trade balance with BANGLADESH PR (exports minus imports)
9,480
Hindutva-aligned
Others-Bangladesh: India trade balance with BANGLADESH PR (exports minus imports)
8,807
Hindutva-aligned
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise imports from BANGLADESH PR
2,005
Opposed
Others-Bangladesh: India merchandise imports from BANGLADESH PR
1,780
Opposed
Figure 41.37. Hindutva-aligned vs opposed, counted rows (event (1 = occurred; date in notes))
Hindutva-aligned 2 event (1 = occurred; date in notes) · 50.0%Opposed 2 event (1 = occurred; date in notes) · 50.0%Transactional 0 event (1 = occurred; date in notes) · 0.0%Neutral / not counted 0 event (1 = occurred; date in notes) · 0.0%
Data table
event (1 = occurred; date in notes)
Share
Hindutva-aligned
2
50.0%
Opposed
2
50.0%
Transactional
0
0.0%
Neutral / not counted
0
0.0%
Figure 41.38. The 4 biggest of 4 (event (1 = occurred; date in notes))
Others-Bangladesh: India bars Bangladesh RMG and other goods via land ports (RMG only via Kolkata & Nhava Sheva)1
Others-Bangladesh: Bangladesh halted yarn imports via its land ports1
Others-Bangladesh: India bars jute products HS 531090, 560890, 560790, 630510 from Bangladesh via any land port; only1
Others-Bangladesh: Restrictions still in force; Bangladesh sought removal at 16th JWG on Trade1
Hindutva-alignedOpposed
Data table
event (1 = occurred; date in notes)
Side
Others-Bangladesh: India bars Bangladesh RMG and other goods via land ports (RMG only via Kolkata & Nhava Sheva)
1
Hindutva-aligned
Others-Bangladesh: Bangladesh halted yarn imports via its land ports
1
Opposed
Others-Bangladesh: India bars jute products HS 531090, 560890, 560790, 630510 from Bangladesh via any land port; only
1
Hindutva-aligned
Others-Bangladesh: Restrictions still in force; Bangladesh sought removal at 16th JWG on Trade
Bangladesh 2026-12-12 (expiry): Ganges (Farakka) Water Sharing Treaty 1996 expires 12 Dec 2026; Dhaka pressing for
1
Opposed
Measure 12. Bangladesh: audiences of India-critical voices (Pakistan and Bangladesh together)
Reading 14.0%
Hindutva's share of the followers that come from Pakistan and Bangladesh: 17.5% of the opposing accounts' followers (owner's estimate, 15-20%, from a social-media analysis), 2% of the Hindutva accounts' (owner's default). Live from the follower rows. Grade E: an estimate, to be replaced by measured audience-country data. Indirect: Pakistan and Bangladesh use India's own opposing voices (opposition leaders, Left creators) to push their agenda. The analysis (Instagram reel) ↗
Measure 13. Context: shown for reference, not part of the reading
Figure 41.42. Over time: Hostile acts recorded, Pakistan: Hostile acts recorded · events
Hostile acts recordedPakistan: Hostile acts recorded
Data table
Hostile acts recorded
Pakistan: Hostile acts recorded
2016
1
2019
2
2
2022
1
2025
2
5
2026
2
1
Figure 41.43. Over time: OIC statements on India · OIC statements/resolutions on India recordedData table
OIC statements on India
2017
1
2019
2
2022
1
2025
1
2026
2
Figure 41.44. Over time: Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports, UAE’s share of India’s exports · % of India total exports
Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s exportsUAE’s share of India’s exports
Data table
Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s exports
UAE’s share of India’s exports
2014
3.89
9.71
2015
3.6
10.6
2016
2.43
11.6
2017
1.85
11.3
2018
1.78
9.27
2019
1.68
9.13
2020
1.99
9.21
2021
2.01
5.72
2022
2.08
6.65
2023
2.38
7.01
2024
2.64
8.15
2025
2.69
8.37
2026
2.33
8.46
Figure 41.45. Over time: India’s exports to Saudi Arabia, India’s imports from Saudi Arabia, Trade balance with Saudi Arabia and 3 more · $ billion
India’s exports to Saudi ArabiaIndia’s imports from Saudi ArabiaTrade balance with Saudi ArabiaIndia’s exports to UAEIndia’s imports from UAETrade balance with UAE
Data table
India’s exports to Saudi Arabia
India’s imports from Saudi Arabia
Trade balance with Saudi Arabia
India’s exports to UAE
India’s imports from UAE
Trade balance with UAE
2014
12.2
36.4
-24.2
30.5
29.0
1.5
2015
11.2
28.1
-16.9
33.0
26.1
6.89
2016
6.38
20.3
-13.9
30.3
19.4
10.9
2017
5.11
20.0
-14.9
31.2
21.5
9.67
2018
5.41
22.1
-16.7
28.1
21.7
6.41
2019
5.56
28.5
-22.9
30.1
29.8
0.34
2020
6.24
26.9
-20.6
28.9
30.3
-1.4
2021
5.86
16.2
-10.3
16.7
26.6
-9.94
2022
8.76
34.1
-25.3
28.0
44.8
-16.8
2023
10.7
42.0
-31.3
31.6
53.2
-21.6
2024
11.6
31.4
-19.9
35.6
46.8
-11.2
2025
11.8
30.1
-18.4
36.6
63.4
-26.8
2026
10.3
30.8
-20.5
37.4
63.9
-26.5
Figure 41.46. Over time: Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports, UAE’s share of India’s imports · % of India total imports
Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s importsUAE’s share of India’s imports
Data table
Saudi Arabia’s share of India’s imports
UAE’s share of India’s imports
2014
8.09
6.45
2015
6.27
5.83
2016
5.33
5.1
2017
5.2
5.6
2018
4.74
4.67
2019
5.54
5.79
2020
5.66
6.37
2021
4.1
6.75
2022
5.56
7.31
2023
5.87
7.43
2024
4.66
6.94
2025
4.18
8.79
2026
3.97
8.24
Figure 41.47. Planning threat of each global player (reach × hostility, out of 100)Each player’s weight out of 5 = threat ÷ 20, unless set by hand.
Western media, academia, philanthropy and rights bodies84.6
USA72
China72
Big Tech53.1
Global Islam47.1
India Abroad: Diaspora & Soft Power40
Others16.5
Global Christianity9
Data table
Value
Side
Western media, academia, philanthropy and rights bodies
84.6
Other
USA
72
Other
China
72
Other
Big Tech
53.1
Other
Global Islam
47.1
Opposed
India Abroad: Diaspora & Soft Power
40
Other
Others
16.5
Other
Global Christianity
9
Other
Figure 41.48. Islamist networks & OIC: Security now: Islamist terror at home 2024-26 (J&K and the hinterland)
Reading52.2%132 : 121
Terrorists killedSecurity forces and civilians killed
Data table
Terrorists killed
Security forces and civilians killed
Terrorists killed share
Reading
132
121
52.2%
41.6Evidence base
The arena rests on 308 coded units, 30 money flows and 302 time-series points. Of the units and flows, 39 are coded Hindutva-aligned, 264 opposed and 35 neutral, mixed or transactional. By source grade: 199 grade A, 37 grade B, 73 grade C, 11 grade D, 2 grade E.
The full set of rows for this arena, each with its source, is in the Atlas data file (Appendix D).
Notes
Terrorists killed 1753 vs security forces and civilians 950 (SATP). ↩
J&K 132 vs 106 (SATP, Pahalgam included) plus the Red Fort car bomb, 10 Nov 2025 (15 killed). ↩
Hindutva's share of the followers that come from Pakistan and Bangladesh: 17.5% of the opposing accounts' followers (owner's estimate, 15-20%, from a social-media analysis), 2% of the Hindutva accounts' (owner's default). Live from the follower rows. Grade E: an estimate, to be replaced by measured audience-country data. Indirect: Pakistan and Bangladesh use India's own opposing voices (opposition leaders, Left creators) to push their agenda.. ↩
By government: Yunus interim government (Aug 2024–Feb 2026) 2 Indian counter-moves (transshipment withdrawn, land-port curbs) vs 7 opposing acts (attacks on Hindus, 76 incidents in 26 Nov 2024–25 Jan 2025 per MEA; Chinmoy Das arrest; Hasina extradition note; Yunus “landlocked” remark; Hasina death sentence …); BNP government (PM Tarique Rahman, since 17 Feb 2026) 0 vs 3 (PM visit refused until Hasina is extradited, push-in clashes, Farakka renewal pressure). Total 2 vs 10 (g_others_units.csv; owner, round 2 D20). ↩